53. Inflation Matters: Stop Crushing Americans' Purchasing Power
In this newsletter, I discuss how inflation is hurting Americans' wallet, how bad policies are negating prosperity, and how we must avoid shutdowns.
Hello Friend,
Welcome! Thanks for joining me again. Given my experience in academia, public policy at the largest state-based think tank (TPPF), and government at the White House’s Office of Management and Budget, I provide with you quick, trustworthy views from a free-market economist on the economic and fiscal situations in Texas and the U.S., along with the COVID situation. Please subscribe here:
Personal take: It’s been a productive week. Things are winding down some as the Christmas and New Year’s break is quickly approaching. However, I don’t rest much because the fight for liberty never sleeps. Ha! We had our 20-week appointment for baby Parker and she is doing well, as is my wife despite nausea and a recent cold. Check out the picture below where you can see Parker’s head, leg and foot, and arm covering her right eye. The due date in April is quickly approaching. Our boys are keeping us busy with school and sports events but we’re truly blessed as we live our dreams.
I had a great time in San Diego at the ALEC meetings last week networking, learning, and speaking to the Suburban Caucus and the Tax & Fiscal Policy Task Force on the benefits of limited government and the need to remove government obstacles to let people prosper.
Hot take: My favorite event each year is TPPF’s Policy Orientation. Register now.
The best policy event every year! Don’t miss it! #txlege #congress https://t.co/Rsr3afjlfdThe 20th Annual Policy Orientation is open for registration! 🇺🇸🗽 We are bringing together the most influential conservative voices for a conference you don't want to miss! Reserve your general admission ticket today 👉 https://t.co/IttBEqZnep https://t.co/s8PrmqL8RVTexas Public Policy Foundation @TPPF
Now for the latest on Texas, D.C., and COVID-19.
TEXAS ECONOMIC AND FISCAL SITUATION
There’s so much waste in this “infrastructure” bill, states must use caution.
Don’t miss this report.
Fiscal conservativism doesn’t include corporate handouts. End them! See TPPF’s joint statement with the progressive Every Texan think tank on the need to keep the transparency of Ch. 313 property tax abatements.
"Texans need to know what we're getting for our $. To ensure accountability for tens of billions of $ that Ch 313 will cost in the future, @txcomptroller should withdraw his proposed rule change & maintain, or improve, transparency of the Ch 313 program.” @TPPF @EveryTxn #txlege@EveryTxn and @TPPF together again! Our disparate organizations found common cause in opposing extension of the wasteful #Chapter313 tax breaks. We come together again to oppose @txcomptroller's proposal to radically reduce 313's transparency. https://t.co/HfMgVye9xx #txlegeDick Lavine @dlavine
More comparisons like this are needed for states. I can help you do it!
Michael Lucci shares our chart comparing state unemployment rates.
Housing policy matters…along with many other policies.
This! Join the movement for education freedom here.
Sad, but true. #txlegeSchool choice is in the Republican Party of Texas platform. Republicans have controlled the Texas House, Senate, and Governorship for nearly two decades. But Texas still does not have any programs to fund students instead of systems. https://t.co/5uzTF36PYECorey A. DeAngelis @DeAngelisCoreyTeachers, students, and families benefit from education freedom where we fund students not systems. Currently, too much spending is going to administrators.
Where’s hostility toward teachers? Texas public schools have received billions more in funding every year even when enrollment declines. A problem is much of it goes to administrators from school district leadership decisions. Teachers gain power through ed freedom. #txlegeTeachers ask us every day: “Why the hostility toward us and #txed when we have sacrificed so much for our Texas schoolchildren?” It’s a heartbreaking, poignant question. What is your answer, @GregAbbott_TX and @DanPatrick? #txlege @tasanet @tasbnews @OfficialATPE @Texans4EPastors for Children @pastors4txkids
U.S. ECONOMIC AND FISCAL SITUATION
Overview of the latest U.S. jobs report.
Muddled #jobsreport for Nov with huge miss in establishment survey but strength in household survey. Private nonfarm jobs only +235K, remains 3M below Feb. 2020. Total employment +1.1M, prime-age emp-pop ratio +0.5% to 78.8%, under 80.5% in Feb. 2020. Real earnings down. @TPPFNovember Payrolls Huge Miss: Just 210K Jobs Added, Fewest Since December 2020 https://t.co/VmslYDt3ePzerohedge @zerohedgeInflation is hurting the poor most.
More on inflation.
We need spending restraint…here’s support for it.
My friend Jonathan Williams at ALEC correctly notes how deficits and debt are always and everywhere an overspending problem!
My latest in @NRO with @njstark7 Tax Cuts Didn’t Lay the Federal Debt Trap nationalreview.com/2021/12/tax-cu… @ALEC_states #debtceilingPresident Biden and his chief of staff have had some ridiculous claims lately.
Gas prices are down some because of widespread demand concerns including fear about the Omicron variant but still way up. This is in spite of #Biden’s bad policies that have been detrimental to Americans paying less for gas at the pump and energy prices. @GasBuddy @TPPF https://t.co/CPFUtSc5PaGas prices are already starting to come down (esp. since Thanksgiving) -- we've got to make more progress, but it's moving in the right direction. https://t.co/LchXIX4PeWRonald Klain @WHCOS
My retort to missed claims by Paul Krugman and Jason Furman.
Real (inf-adj) avg hourly earnings are up since Feb 2020 (@paulkrugman). But misses 3M fewer employed in private sector (@jasonfurman). Real total earnings down 0.97% since Feb 2020, up 11.2% since Apr 2020, & only up 2.3% since Jan 2021. Will be worse if #BBB passes.❌ @TPPFPart of the reason people might be upset is that this is not true. Real wages are down ~1% since the pandemic. Your data suffer from composition bias: about 5m generally lower-wage workers are no longer employed and not having them in the data spuriously raises wages. https://t.co/oGByrlbfj5Jason Furman @jasonfurman
My colleague Chuck DeVore takes President Biden’s claims to school.
So much coming out of Washington is killing opportunities to prosper. Stop it!
Biden was taking credit for lower initial weekly claims, not so fast.
Seasonal adjustment seems to be big factor for large decline in initial claims. Continued claims remain elevated but are trending down. While jobless claims hit a 52 year low, inflation rate could hit a 40 year high tomorrow when productivity rate is at 60 year low. #Jobs @TPPF https://t.co/Amr731DVP5JUST IN: Weekly jobless claims fall to 184,000, the lowest level in more than 52 years. https://t.co/VnDkZVUra5 https://t.co/x5YJY9yiF9CNBC @CNBC
Biden is heading us in the wrong direction.
Brian Riedl of the Manhatten Institute notes how ARPA was bad.
Even Elon Musk is voicing concern over the roughly $3T debt bomb in BBB.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates #BuildBackBetter will add $2.8 TRILLION to the debt if made permanent without offsets: crfb.org/blogs/permanen….If “temporary” provisions in the Build Back Better Act become permanent, US national debt will increase by 24%! https://t.co/kKdpc45JoBElon Musk @elonmusk
Make work great again!
We need more trade for increased opportunities to prosper.
#Trade from Jan.-Oct. from 2020 to 2021 increased by 19.5%, with increases in exports by 17.9% & imports by 20.7%. However, compared with this period during 2019, total trade is up 3.1%, with exports down 1.7% & imports up 6.9%. More room to recover in trade. @scottlincicomeGet details about the decrease in the U.S. trade deficit in goods and services in October; read our blog: https://t.co/AdhkKYaetS https://t.co/ujGU7cOYaABEA News @BEA_News
COVID-19 IN TEXAS AND BEYOND
Latest info: TX DSHS Covid-related data here. The first 2 major waves had restrictions in place. Hospital data aren’t always best. Gov. Greg Abbott lifted state restrictions on Mar. 10, 2021, and blocked local restrictions on May 21, 2021. Wave #3 ended without government-mandated masks, vaccines, or shutdowns. Good evidence to avoid these in future waves. Things are heating up in Amarillo and El Paso, with staffed bed availability an issue in Laredo. But otherwise, the situation looks okay in Texas.
NEW #COVID19 #Hospitals #Texas Available staffed beds=13.9% (#Laredo=2.9%) COVID hospitalizations=5.3% (#Amarillo=23.6%) Since 3/20: Fat/Pop=0.25%, Case/Pop=12.1%, CFR=2.0% Est. % Infected: ~70% % Vaccinated 1 Dose: ~70% Reaching toward herd immunity? #Freedom>#Control #txlegeNEW: #COVID19 #Hospitals #Texas Available staffed beds=16.1% (#Laredo=1.5%) COVID hospitalizations=5% (#Amarillo=20.4%) Since 3/20: Fat/Pop=0.24%, Case/Pop=12.0%, CFR=2.0% Est. % Infected: 67% % Vaccinated: 69% #Freedom>#Control #txlege @TPPF @GregAbbott_TX @therealarod1984 https://t.co/l75KmTt703 https://t.co/shOgrm6MTpVance Ginn @VanceGinn
I recently finished Scott Atlas’ book and highly recommend it.
Need the full story…
Stop the mandates.
Closing Thoughts
This! Free-market capitalism best lets people prosper.
My prayers this week are focused on this Bible verse as I’m praying for us to be transformed into understanding our identity through Jesus Christ who conquers all.
Thank you for reading and sharing this newsletter. I pray that we continue to fulfill our God-given purpose. Many blessings to you and yours!
Vance Ginn, Ph.D. | www.vanceginn.com | #LetPeopleProsper