53. Inflation Matters: Stop Crushing Americans' Purchasing Power

In this newsletter, I discuss how inflation is hurting Americans' wallet, how bad policies are negating prosperity, and how we must avoid shutdowns.

Hello Friend,

Welcome! Thanks for joining me again. Given my experience in academia, public policy at the largest state-based think tank (TPPF), and government at the White House’s Office of Management and Budget, I provide with you quick, trustworthy views from a free-market economist on the economic and fiscal situations in Texas and the U.S., along with the COVID situation. Please subscribe here:

• Personal take: It’s been a productive week. Things are winding down some as the Christmas and New Year’s break is quickly approaching. However, I don’t rest much because the fight for liberty never sleeps. Ha! We had our 20-week appointment for baby Parker and she is doing well, as is my wife despite nausea and a recent cold. Check out the picture below where you can see Parker’s head, leg and foot, and arm covering her right eye. The due date in April is quickly approaching. Our boys are keeping us busy with school and sports events but we’re truly blessed as we live our dreams.

  

• I had a great time in San Diego at the ALEC meetings last week networking, learning, and speaking to the Suburban Caucus and the Tax & Fiscal Policy Task Force on the benefits of limited government and the need to remove government obstacles to let people prosper.

  

• Hot take: My favorite event each year is TPPF’s Policy Orientation. Register now.

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  The best policy event every year! Don’t miss it! #txlege #congress https://t.co/Rsr3afjlfd

  

  Texas Public Policy Foundation @TPPF

  The 20th Annual Policy Orientation is open for registration! 🇺🇸🗽 We are bringing together the most influential conservative voices for a conference you don't want to miss! Reserve your general admission ticket today 👉 https://t.co/IttBEqZnep https://t.co/s8PrmqL8RV

Now for the latest on Texas, D.C., and COVID-19.

TEXAS ECONOMIC AND FISCAL SITUATION

• There’s so much waste in this “infrastructure” bill, states must use caution.

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  NEW in my latest commentary: #Texas and all states must carefully consider using funds from #Biden’s $1.2 trillion green energy boondoggle ("Jobs Act"). Here's why & ways to not waste taxpayer $: thecannononline.com/texas-must-car… @TPPF @StatePolicy @ALEC_states #txlege @GregAbbott_TX

  

  thecannononline.comTexas Must Carefully Consider Using Funds from Biden’s Green Energy BoondoggleThere’s a saying, “The road to hell is paved with good intentions.” If that’s true, the recent passage of the Biden administration’s “infrastructure” package just added an express lane. The massive $1.2 trillion bill, called the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (“Jobs Act”), balloons the $29 t…

• Don’t miss this report.

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  I was glad to advise this @GAOpportunity research on the state pandemic response impact on work & opportunity. Findings indicate the severity of state responses cost jobs without much impact on #COVID hospitalizations/death rates. georgiaopportunity.org/state-pandemic… @TPPF @brownstoneinst

  

  georgiaopportunity.orgState Pandemic Response Impact On Work & Opportunity - Georgia Center For Opportunity

• Fiscal conservativism doesn’t include corporate handouts. End them! See TPPF’s joint statement with the progressive Every Texan think tank on the need to keep the transparency of Ch. 313 property tax abatements.

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  "Texans need to know what we're getting for our $. To ensure accountability for tens of billions of $ that Ch 313 will cost in the future, @txcomptroller should withdraw his proposed rule change & maintain, or improve, transparency of the Ch 313 program.” @TPPF @EveryTxn #txlege

  

  Dick Lavine @dlavine

  @EveryTxn and @TPPF together again! Our disparate organizations found common cause in opposing extension of the wasteful #Chapter313 tax breaks. We come together again to oppose @txcomptroller's proposal to radically reduce 313's transparency. https://t.co/HfMgVye9xx #txlege

• More comparisons like this are needed for states. I can help you do it!

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  #NewMexico lands closer to #California & #NewYork than #Florida & #Texas regarding economic freedom, lower spending & tax burdens, & worse labor market outcomes. @pgessing Economic freedom & jobs matter to #letpeopleprosper. errorsofenchantment.com/how-does-new-m… #txlege #nmlege @deanstansel

  

• Michael Lucci shares our chart comparing state unemployment rates.

  Michael Lucci @MLucci731

  @BrianDeeseNEC Seems the states that are driving unemployment down are the ones doing the opposite of your policies, per the chart. ARPA is driving the strongest inflation and labor shortage in recent American history. Chart from @VanceGinn

  

• Housing policy matters…along with many other policies.

  Mark J. Perry @Mark_J_Perry

  See a pattern here? California's population is 35% larger than Texas, but Texas has increased the supply of single-family homes 2-3X more than CA since 2010 and that's reflected in home prices in CA that are now 2.7X higher than Texas. @VanceGinn 🤔👇

  

• This! Join the movement for education freedom here.

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  Sad, but true. #txlege

  

  Corey A. DeAngelis @DeAngelisCorey

  School choice is in the Republican Party of Texas platform. Republicans have controlled the Texas House, Senate, and Governorship for nearly two decades. But Texas still does not have any programs to fund students instead of systems. https://t.co/5uzTF36PYE

• Teachers, students, and families benefit from education freedom where we fund students not systems. Currently, too much spending is going to administrators.

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  Where’s hostility toward teachers? Texas public schools have received billions more in funding every year even when enrollment declines. A problem is much of it goes to administrators from school district leadership decisions. Teachers gain power through ed freedom. #txlege

  

  Pastors for Children @pastors4txkids

  Teachers ask us every day: “Why the hostility toward us and #txed when we have sacrificed so much for our Texas schoolchildren?” It’s a heartbreaking, poignant question. What is your answer, @GregAbbott_TX and @DanPatrick? #txlege @tasanet @tasbnews @OfficialATPE @Texans4E

U.S. ECONOMIC AND FISCAL SITUATION

• Overview of the latest U.S. jobs report.

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  Muddled #jobsreport for Nov with huge miss in establishment survey but strength in household survey. Private nonfarm jobs only +235K, remains 3M below Feb. 2020. Total employment +1.1M, prime-age emp-pop ratio +0.5% to 78.8%, under 80.5% in Feb. 2020. Real earnings down. @TPPF

  

  zerohedge @zerohedge

  November Payrolls Huge Miss: Just 210K Jobs Added, Fewest Since December 2020 https://t.co/VmslYDt3eP

• Inflation is hurting the poor most.

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  "Lower-income households suffered the most, according to the pole, with over 70% of respondents earning less than $40,000 a year saying price hikes have negatively impacted their families." dailycaller.com/2021/12/03/hal… via @DailyCaller #txlege #congress #fed

  

  dailycaller.comAlmost Half Of All Americans Say Inflation Caused Them Financial HardshipAlmost half of Americans said soaring prices created financial hardship for their households, while 10% reported that they are experiencing "severe hardship."

• More on inflation.

  Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome

  "The Uneven Fallout of the Inflation Surge" statista.com/chart/26334/ef…

  

• We need spending restraint…here’s support for it.

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  The time for fiscal sanity is now! The path is a Responsible American Budget! Americans are watching! texaspolicy.com/press/what-the… #congress #txlege @TPPF

  

  texaspolicy.comWhat They’re Saying About TPPF’s Responsible American BudgetThe Texas Public Policy Foundation recently released the Responsible American Budget, a plan for the federal government to limit the out-of-control spending that threatens the prosperity of future generations. The key component of the proposal imposes a successful spending growth formula that has ke…

• My friend Jonathan Williams at ALEC correctly notes how deficits and debt are always and everywhere an overspending problem!

  Jonathan Williams @Taxeconomist

  My latest in @NRO with @njstark7 Tax Cuts Didn’t Lay the Federal Debt Trap nationalreview.com/2021/12/tax-cu… @ALEC_states #debtceiling

  

  nationalreview.comTax Cuts Didn’t Lay the Federal Debt Trap | National ReviewThe real culprit is federal overspending.

• President Biden and his chief of staff have had some ridiculous claims lately.

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  Gas prices are down some because of widespread demand concerns including fear about the Omicron variant but still way up. This is in spite of #Biden’s bad policies that have been detrimental to Americans paying less for gas at the pump and energy prices. @GasBuddy @TPPF https://t.co/CPFUtSc5Pa

  

  

  Ronald Klain @WHCOS

  Gas prices are already starting to come down (esp. since Thanksgiving) -- we've got to make more progress, but it's moving in the right direction. https://t.co/LchXIX4PeW

• My retort to missed claims by Paul Krugman and Jason Furman.

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  Real (inf-adj) avg hourly earnings are up since Feb 2020 (@paulkrugman). But misses 3M fewer employed in private sector (@jasonfurman). Real total earnings down 0.97% since Feb 2020, up 11.2% since Apr 2020, & only up 2.3% since Jan 2021. Will be worse if #BBB passes.❌ @TPPF

  

  

  

  

  

  Jason Furman @jasonfurman

  Part of the reason people might be upset is that this is not true. Real wages are down ~1% since the pandemic. Your data suffer from composition bias: about 5m generally lower-wage workers are no longer employed and not having them in the data spuriously raises wages. https://t.co/oGByrlbfj5

• My colleague Chuck DeVore takes President Biden’s claims to school.

  Chuck DeVore @ChuckDeVore

  I watched the #Biden press conference this morning. It had some whoppers. I detail three in @FDRLST. thefederalist.com/2021/12/03/3-w… @TPPF @Life_Powered_

  

  thefederalist.com3 Whoppers Joe Biden Just Told To Cover Up His Terrible Job PerformancePresident Joe Biden did his best at Friday morning’s press conference to deflect attention from a surprisingly anemic jobs report.

• So much coming out of Washington is killing opportunities to prosper. Stop it!

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  Bad policies out of Washington and states are to blame for poor labor market outcomes. Stop the fiscal, monetary, and regulatory insanity of BBB, printing money, and mandates/shutdowns. In short, let people prosper by getting govt out of the way. #congress #txlege

  

• Biden was taking credit for lower initial weekly claims, not so fast.

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  Seasonal adjustment seems to be big factor for large decline in initial claims. Continued claims remain elevated but are trending down. While jobless claims hit a 52 year low, inflation rate could hit a 40 year high tomorrow when productivity rate is at 60 year low. #Jobs @TPPF https://t.co/Amr731DVP5

  

  CNBC @CNBC

  JUST IN: Weekly jobless claims fall to 184,000, the lowest level in more than 52 years. https://t.co/VnDkZVUra5 https://t.co/x5YJY9yiF9

• Biden is heading us in the wrong direction.

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  "The #Biden administration has pulled back from the #Trump administration and what was going on in a positive way before has now been turned back," says Vance Ginn, chief economist at the Texas Public Policy Foundation. ktrh.iheart.com/content/2021-1… #congress #txlege

  

  ktrh.iheart.comBiden, Dems’ Regulations Slowing Economic Recovery | NewsRadio 740 KTRHNewsRadio 740 is Houston’s Local and National News, Weather and Traffic radio station with political analysis from Michael Berry, Jimmy Barrett, Shara Fryer, Sean Hannity, Mark Levin and more!

• Brian Riedl of the Manhatten Institute notes how ARPA was bad.

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  .@Brian_Riedl: More than eight months after its enactment, the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan continues to reveal itself as the most damaging spending bill enacted in decades. Agreed!💯 nypost.com/2021/12/08/dem… @nypost #ARPA #killthebill #congress #txlege

  

  nypost.comThe worst spending bill ever: Democrats’ $1.9T ‘rescue’ is drowning usMore expensive than last year’s CARES Act, the 2009 stimulus, ObamaCare, or any enacted spending bill of the Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush I, Clinton, or Bush II eras.

• Even Elon Musk is voicing concern over the roughly $3T debt bomb in BBB.

  CRFB.org @BudgetHawks

  The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates #BuildBackBetter will add $2.8 TRILLION to the debt if made permanent without offsets: crfb.org/blogs/permanen….

  

  Elon Musk @elonmusk

  If “temporary” provisions in the Build Back Better Act become permanent, US national debt will increase by 24%! https://t.co/kKdpc45JoB

• Make work great again!

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  Good paper by Rachel Greszler at Heritage. #economy #jobs Make work great again! #letpeopleprosper https://t.co/BruEZAlqVq

  

  Heritage Foundation @Heritage

  What Is Happening in This Unprecedented U.S. Labor Market? https://t.co/Sier5iIrmz

• We need more trade for increased opportunities to prosper.

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  #Trade from Jan.-Oct. from 2020 to 2021 increased by 19.5%, with increases in exports by 17.9% & imports by 20.7%. However, compared with this period during 2019, total trade is up 3.1%, with exports down 1.7% & imports up 6.9%. More room to recover in trade. @scottlincicome

  

  BEA News @BEA_News

  Get details about the decrease in the U.S. trade deficit in goods and services in October; read our blog: https://t.co/AdhkKYaetS https://t.co/ujGU7cOYaA

COVID-19 IN TEXAS AND BEYOND

• Latest info: TX DSHS Covid-related data here. The first 2 major waves had restrictions in place. Hospital data aren’t always best. Gov. Greg Abbott lifted state restrictions on Mar. 10, 2021, and blocked local restrictions on May 21, 2021. Wave #3 ended without government-mandated masks, vaccines, or shutdowns. Good evidence to avoid these in future waves. Things are heating up in Amarillo and El Paso, with staffed bed availability an issue in Laredo. But otherwise, the situation looks okay in Texas.

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  NEW #COVID19 #Hospitals #Texas Available staffed beds=13.9% (#Laredo=2.9%) COVID hospitalizations=5.3% (#Amarillo=23.6%) Since 3/20: Fat/Pop=0.25%, Case/Pop=12.1%, CFR=2.0% Est. % Infected: ~70% % Vaccinated 1 Dose: ~70% Reaching toward herd immunity? #Freedom>#Control #txlege

  

  

  

  

  

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  NEW: #COVID19 #Hospitals #Texas Available staffed beds=16.1% (#Laredo=1.5%) COVID hospitalizations=5% (#Amarillo=20.4%) Since 3/20: Fat/Pop=0.24%, Case/Pop=12.0%, CFR=2.0% Est. % Infected: 67% % Vaccinated: 69% #Freedom>#Control #txlege @TPPF @GregAbbott_TX @therealarod1984 https://t.co/l75KmTt703 https://t.co/shOgrm6MTp

• I recently finished Scott Atlas’ book and highly recommend it.

  Scott W. Atlas @ScottWAtlas

  "Covid's Three Blind Mice" "Atlas's book is an astonishing read"..."governance was hijacked by three bureaucrats with scant interest in scientific research or debate—and no concern for the calamitous effects of their edicts."

  

  city-journal.orgReview of A Plague Upon Our House by Scott Atlas | City JournalA new book reveals how the troika of Fauci, Birx, and Redfield hijacked America’s pandemic response.

• Need the full story…

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  Interesting charts by @greg_ip. Lives and livelihoods matter. Of course, the chart for deaths don’t consider the excess deaths from cancer, heart attack, drug overdoses and other symptoms due to the devastation caused by shutdowns. #Freedom > #Control wsj.com/articles/omicr…

  

  

  

  

• Stop the mandates.

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  “Speaker Nancy Pelosi won’t allow a vote in the House, but the bipartisan Senate repudiation, like the judicial rulings, shows what a blunder the coercive mandates are.” 💯 wsj.com/articles/biden…

  

  wsj.comOpinion | Biden’s Federal Vaccine Mandate WipeoutThe Administration ignored the law. It is getting crushed in court.

Closing Thoughts

This! Free-market capitalism best lets people prosper.

My prayers this week are focused on this Bible verse as I’m praying for us to be transformed into understanding our identity through Jesus Christ who conquers all.

Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

#transformed romans.bible/romans-12-2

Thank you for reading and sharing this newsletter. I pray that we continue to fulfill our God-given purpose. Many blessings to you and yours!

Vance Ginn, Ph.D. | www.vanceginn.com | #LetPeopleProsper