55. Better Beyond Belief: BBB for 2022

In this Let People Prosper newsletter, we discuss the latest on the state-level employment report, Census population data for states, Build Back Better Act death in 2021, and new wave of COVID-19.

Hello Friend,

Thank you for reading the Let People Prosper newsletter! We understand that an inclusive institutional framework comprising individual liberty, strong families, robust civil society, free-market capitalism, and constitutional republic best provides opportunities to relieve poverty and let people prosper. This prosperity isn’t just material but spiritual, psychological, etc. that satisfies human desires. Given this understanding and my experience and research as a free-market economist, I provide trusted views on economies and policies in states and the U.S., and COVID situation.

• Personal take:

1. I hope you had a Merry Christmas and will have a fantastic New Year! My family did as we celebrated the birth of our Savior Jesus Christ. We enjoyed time with family, and though there were some unexpected events, we had a blessed week.

2. This is my last newsletter for 2021. It’s surreal that I’ve now been writing this newsletter for more than one year with about four posts each month and have more than 500 subscribers. Thank you! I look forward to improving the newsletter in 2022, so please send me your feedback on it and my updated website.

3. I choose a word each year to focus my efforts though I never know which way God will take me. After much prayer for my word in 2022, I believe it should be “Build.” In past years, I have had “flourish,” “prosper,” and “serve” this year, so I think “build” fits in nicely with those and will create more opportunities to grow in my faith, family, work, and more. Please share with me your word and I’ll be praying about it for you.

4. 2022 is going to be stellar as I’m already expecting our third child (first daughter), more ways to advance my work to help people through a new Alliance for Opportunity initiative (more to come soon), and many other avenues. Here’s to 2022!

Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

Check out #MyYearInBooks @goodreads to discover the 35 books that I read in 2021! goodreads.com/user/year_in_b…

• Hot take: Removing federal government actions would help the situation.

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  Key to solving the destruction to lives & livelihoods is getting govt out of the way whereby individual liberty, free enterprise, & federalism have more opportunities to meet unique needs. I’ve been saying this since this beginning. Example: thecannononline.com/let-entreprene… #txlege https://t.co/VmnTsMTRaC

  

  Breaking911 @Breaking911

  Joe Biden, who ran for President on the promise of ending the COVID-19 pandemic: "There is no federal solution. This gets solved at a state level." https://t.co/QE82SXBO49

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TEXAS & OTHER STATES ECONOMIES AND POLICIES

1. Don’t miss the latest Ginn Economic Brief on Texas (h/t E.J. Antoni).

   Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

   2/2 #Texas continues to recover from the shutdown recession but weaknesses remain, which I provide ways to improve the Texas Model to #letpeopleprosper. More here👇: texaspolicy.com/texaseconomy/

   

   

2. More on the latest state-level jobs report (h/t Erik Randolph)

   Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

   3 figures based on state-level data. 1) Only 4 states have employment above pre-shutdown level in Feb. 2020: Utah, Idaho, Texas, Arizona. 2) #Texas is 28,200 jobs above then. 3) No state is above its pre-shutdown trend employment (TX is 3.3% below). @GAOpportunity @TPPF #txlege

   

   

   

3. Census updates population and migration for states indicate institutions matter. Click this tweet for the full graphic.

   Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

   People fleeing blue states to red states is expected. Economic freedom, govt burden, opportunity, and cost of living matter. I’ve been saying and writing about this for years. Here’s my latest @TPPF: thecannononline.com/economic-freed… @WSJ @WhiteHouseCEA @Comm4Prosperity @FreedomWorks

   

4. Latest on Chapter 313 property tax abatements in Texas.

   Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

   State Officials Look to Adapt as Economic Development Tax Break Enters its Final Year & Apps Flood In A proposed change in how the state collects and compiles data about an eco devo incentive program spurred criticism. @TheTexanNews thetexan.news/state-official… @TPPF @ISAACforTexas

   

   thetexan.newsState Officials Look to Adapt as Economic Development Tax Break Enters its Final Year and Applications Flood InA proposed change in how the state collects and compiles data about an economic development incentive program spurred criticism.

5. Job quits by state are fascinating to watch. What does it mean?

   Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

   #Texas becomes job quitting capital of the US while employers add more jobs. Potentially good signs but let’s see how things continue to improve as nonfarm jobs are 3.3% below the pre-shutdown trend level of employment. houstonchronicle.com/business/econo… @HoustonChron @TPPF #txlege

   

   

6. Texas is recovering from the shutdown recession and leading in many ways.

   Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

   #Texas continues to exceed the US average in job creation overall and by sector, and major sectors are reaching record highs in wages and benefits per business outlook surveys. @DallasFed #txlege

   

   

   

   Dallas Fed @DallasFed

   Texas Employment Forecast: Employment grew at a strong 7.4% annualized rate in November after increasing a revised 4.5% (previously 3.8%) in October. We estimate that jobs will increase by 5.3% in 2021 and 649,200 jobs will be added in the state this year. https://t.co/6Jodwc5K4x

7. How did your state do?

   Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

   NEW: #Texas’ economy picked up steam in Q3:2021 as economy was fully open & people returning to work Nominal GDP surpassed $2T for 1st time, but includes inflation Real (infl-adj) GDP annual +3.5% (4th fastest in US) to $1.84T Private real GDP (excl govt) +3% @TPPF #txlege https://t.co/lkKliFmJ9S

   

   BEA News @BEA_News

   See how your state economy fared in the third quarter of 2021; read our latest GDP by state blog: https://t.co/5r224v05xB. https://t.co/aXfy5BvHuZ

8. Surprise! Tradeoffs matter. Paying people to not work makes them not work.

   NBER @nberpubs

   Early termination of pandemic-era unemployment benefits increased transitions from unemployment to employment, from @HolzerHarry, R. Glenn Hubbard, and @MichaelRStrain nber.org/papers/w29575

   

9. Interesting WSJ piece on COVID and government restrictions.

   Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

   “Spring has disproportionately affected northern states. Summers have been hardest on the South.” @WSJ Seasons appear to matter more to #COVID19 spread than govt restrictions, and restrictions cause many problems. End govt restrictions! wsj.com/articles/how-c… #letpeopleprosper

   

   

   

10. Gas prices…

    Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

    Gasoline prices fall as fears of shutdowns hit oil markets: #Houston avg $2.80/gallon Mon (down 14 cents over past month but up 97 cents since last year). National avg $3.30 (down 11 cents from a month ago but up $1.10 since last year). houstonchronicle.com/business/energ… @HoustonChron

    

    houstonchronicle.comGasoline prices fall as omicron hits oil marketsGasoline prices fell in Houston and across the country as fears of the economic impact of the omicron variant drove crude prices lower. Local prices fell 4 cents over the week to an average $2.80 a gallon Monday, sliding 14 cents over the past month. Prices are 97 cents higher than a year ago. Natio…

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U.S. ECONOMY AND POLICIES

1. We did it! But there’s more work to do in 2022.

   Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

   .@TPPF is thankful to be part of this vibrant coalition to kill #Democrats’ $5T #BuildBackBetter Act. More work to do in 2022 as Dems will bring it back in scaled down version that hides the bill’s costs but still hurts Americans. nationalreview.com/news/how-the-c… @StephenMoore @A1Policy

   

   nationalreview.comHow the Conservative ‘Save America Coalition’ Helped Kill Build Back Better | National ReviewA collection of roughly 70 conservative groups spent a combined $20 million to expose the bill’s extreme provisions.

2. We can build beyond belief without the Build Back Bankrupt Act.

   Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

   Watch my segment on #RealAmerica with @DanNewsManBall @OANN on why the #BuildBackBetterAct should stay dead in 2022 to save America. Thank you, @Sen_JoeManchin & @SenateGOP! rumble.com/vr6ips-real-am… #txlege #congress @TPPF #killthebill #inflation

   

3. Stop bad policies out of Washington, D.C. before more suffer (h/t Mark Perry).

   Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

   Hey @POTUS, #Congress, and @federalreserve: Y’all can’t overspend, raise debt, and print your way to prosperity. ❌❌❌ This ain’t some mathematical model to maximize, this is the real world. Stop bankrupting Americans and America. https://t.co/wrtAU0kP01

   

   Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

   Unfortunately for Americans, especially those with lower or fixed income, #inflation is going to get worse. Stop bad policies out of Washington. https://t.co/U8CsHHhIx3 https://t.co/iRFDQg7Ls3

4. Here’s an overview of the costs of the Biden administration in just 1 YEAR.

   Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

   Good info by @RepublicanStudy on devastating failures of #Biden and #Democrats in #Congress at the expense of Americans. Too much debt, dependency, and depression from bad policies out of Washington. republicans-budget.house.gov/wp-content/upl… @RepJimBanks @RepJasonSmith @_Alexa_Walker

   

5. Less coercion is needed to better help the needy.

   Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

   “Almost everybody wants to help those who truly and deservedly need help…At the very least, let’s not make the mistake of arguing that to use force, plunder, & dependency is somehow “the #Christian thing to do.”” fee-org.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/fee.org/ar… @feeonline #opportunity #letpeopleprosper

   

   Good WSJ piece on this by former Trump CEA Chair Tomas Philipson.

   Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

   Biden’s Child-Poverty Progress Isn’t Real by Tomas J. Philipson “You don’t cut poverty by in­creas­ing re­liance on gov­ern­ment. You do it by mak­ing them self-re­liant.“💯 wsj.com/articles/biden…

   

   wsj.comOpinion | Biden’s Child-Poverty Progress Isn’t RealInflation ate up much of the income gains, which came with greater dependency.

6. The White House confuses correlation with causation…again.

   Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

   Don’t confuse correlation for causation. Basic statistics. Facts: •SPR release did NOT ⬇️gas price •Oil/gas prices ⬇️ from fearmongering/shutdowns by govt over #Omicron •Winter blend of gas is cheaper •But gas is ⬆️32% since 2019 & ⬆️47% since 2020 •Bad policy ⬆️ price

   

   

   

   Ronald Klain @WHCOS

   As people head out for the Christmas weekend, gas prices continue to drop -- down 25 cents a gallon in many places since @POTUS announced the globally-coordinated strategic petroleum release. https://t.co/bJgCZaYGp1

7. Important thread by Democrat economist Larry Summers on the ridiculous action by Biden to extend the student loan moratorium until May 1, though I “benefit” from it the cost is too high. (See his other tweet thread on how some are jumping to antitrust arguments to deflect from bad government policies.)

   Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

   Even @LHSummers, who has worked in Democrat administrations, notes #Biden’s political action taken to extend “student loan moratorium is highly problematic” & explains why in🧵 I’ve been agreeing with @LHSummers more during Biden. Glad to see agreement across spectrum. #Congress

   

   Lawrence H. Summers @LHSummers

   Judged purely in terms of economic impacts, the Administration’s decision to extend student loan moratorium is highly problematic.

8. Let’s not become Europe with regards to unreliable, costly energy

   Steve Hanke @steve_hanke

   #EconWatch: Europe’s rush to renewables has given rise to a surge in electricity prices. Europeans are paying over 6 times more for electricity than Americans. Looks like @Sen_JoeManchin has a point.

   

9. Sorry, Americans, but you know who to blame: Washington!

   Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

   Real personal income has declined in 8 of the last 10 months during the #Biden administration as #inflation has outpaced growth in personal income. #economy #congress #txlege

   

   

   BEA News @BEA_News

   Get details on people’s income and spending in November; read our latest blog, https://t.co/aWlDw4mGTD. https://t.co/t0gRth3Kkg

10. Laughable that the White House’s Press Secretary would tweet this…

    Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

    Doesn’t take a Nobel prize-winning economist to know this is flawed. These “wins” depend on base when govts hadn’t reopened so expected sharp bounce back, which @POTUS policies hurt. Also “wins” by D.C.: 1) Highest inflation in 39 yrs & 2) Misery index remains high in recovery.

    

    Jen Psaki @PressSec

    among the last 50 years of presidencies— @POTUS’ first year ranks: #1 in GDP growth #1 in profit growth #2 in jobs created #2 in productivity growth #2 in stock market global performance #2 in dollar appreciation https://t.co/HLxa7EcHJW

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COVID-19 SITUATION

Latest info: TX DSHS Covid-related data here. The first 2 major waves had restrictions in place. Hospital data aren’t always best. Gov. Greg Abbott lifted state restrictions on Mar. 10, 2021, and blocked local restrictions on May 21, 2021. Wave #3 (2021 Summer 2 Wave) ended without government-mandated masks, vaccines, or shutdowns. Good evidence to avoid these in future waves. And Wave #4 (2021 Winter 2 Wave) recently started given the rise in cases as the Omicron variant spreads but hospitalizations remain subdued so far.

Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

NEW #COVID19 #Hospitals #Texas 1) Wave #4 (2021 Winter 2 Wave) of #COVID cases underway 2) COVID Hospitalizations mostly subdued, likely peaked in Amarillo & El Paso 3) Staffed hospital beds available elevated (>14%), except in Laredo (5%) Liberty>Control #txlege #Omicron

Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

NEW #COVID19 #Hospitals #Texas Available staffed beds=14% (#Laredo=2.8%) COVID hospitalizations=5.2% (#Amarillo=21.3%) Since 3/20: Fat/Pop=0.25%, Case/Pop=12.3%, CFR=2.0% Winter 2021 "wave" is weak so far compared to Winter 2022 wave #Freedom>#Control #txlege #OmicronVarient https://t.co/dps43IuBGf https://t.co/lwfaDJpVzC

1. Glad to see that Texas Gov. Greg Abbott isn’t going back to state restrictions.

   Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

   “#Texas Gov. Greg Abbott sticks with hands-off approach to COVID-19” Thank you, @GregAbbott_TX, for following science & allocating resources when necessary to those who most need it This proven path should always be used so govt is last resort sanmarcosrecord.com/news/gov-greg-… #txlege

   

   sanmarcosrecord.comGov. Greg Abbott sticks with hands-off approach to COVID-19 as omicron spreadsAs other states are mobilizing to respond to the rapidly spreading omicron variant, Gov. Greg Abbott is not budging on his hands-off approach to the coronavirus pandemic that was cemented months ago.

2. Important insights in this article on the failure of lockdowns (h/t Phil Magness).

   Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

   “lockdown stringency is a poor predictor of Covid-related mortality. Our study of 50 states & 26 countries found no discernible pattern connecting the two—a basic expectation if lockdowns performed as “the science” often insists,” @PhilWMagness⁩ 💯 wsj.com/articles/lockd…

   

   wsj.comOpinion | The Fickle ‘Science’ of LockdownsExperts foresaw before Covid that the strategy would fail. The authorities embraced it anyway.

3. Even the New York Times’ analysis notes that mandating vaccines doesn’t work.

   Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

   According to @nytimes analysis, “Across many different ways of analyzing the data, states and cities with vaccination mandates did not seem to see any significant increase in the rate of vaccinations after the mandates.” Stop coercion. Preserve liberty.

   

   nytimes.comSee Where 12 Million U.S. Employees Are Affected by Government Vaccine MandatesA New York Times analysis shows that thousands of public employees in every state are subject to federal, state or city vaccine mandates — but these requirements have not provided a significant boost to overall vaccination rates.

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Closing Thoughts

Agreed!

My prayers this week are focused on this Bible verse as I’m praying for more people to seek Him.

Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

#MerryChristmas #Christmas #JesusChrist #jesusisthereasonfortheseason

Thank you for reading and sharing this newsletter. I pray that we continue to fulfill our God-given purpose. Many blessings to you and yours!

Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

Request… I suggest to folks not on Twitter to not do it, as it’s a time suck in a pessimistic place. But those of us plugged into debate for work or otherwise, please follow me so I can get to 5,000+ followers soon so we can share sound free-market economic reasoning. Thanks!

Vance Ginn, Ph.D. | www.vanceginn.com | #LetPeopleProsper