Getting Honest About our Nation's Economic Situation | Prosperity Pulse #18
A round-up of my recent commentary on Texas' legislative session, U.S. economic reports, and more.
Hello Friends!
The first step in solving a problem is facing it honestly. At both the federal level and here in Texas, that means confronting runaway spending, overregulation, and government expansion.
Unfortunately, Texas looks to step in the wrong direction this session—with a bloated budget and a failure to deliver on meaningful property tax reform. Even school choice, a major priority, was limited in scope and the Legislature looks poised to spend more on a failing government schools monopoly.
There was positive momentum in tax reform in states like Kansas and South Carolina. Meanwhile, Washington, D.C. continues to flirt with big-government policies we can’t afford. We need to stay focused on free markets and policies that promote prosperity.
On a personal note, with Mother’s Day approaching and the third anniversary of my mom’s passing just behind us, I’ve been reflecting on the life of Melody Lane. She was a remarkable woman who overcame many obstacles and inspired everyone around her. You can read the eulogy I shared in her memory. I miss her deeply and cherish the opportunity to keep her memory alive with my kids.
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Highlights from This Month
1. How Does the Economy Look?
We could be experiencing stagflation, with real GDP shrinking by 0.3% in the first quarter even as inflation rises. The PCE index jumped 3.6%, and core inflation climbed 3.5%. But shrinking output and rising prices don’t have to be our future. With the right policies, we can grow more and pay less.
Don’t let April’s jobs report fool you. While 177,000 jobs were added, a deeper look reveals signs of labor market weakness. Tariffs will only make matters worse…
Are grocery prices dropping under Trump’s first 100 days? In my recent interview with NTD News, I discussed how the economy has shaped up under the new administration. Spoiler alert: there’s a lot of uncertainty.
Are we headed for recession? I joined the Joe Pags Show to break down Trump’s first 100 days and discuss where the U.S. economy really stands.
2. Did Texas Deliver?
Austin can’t afford to keep making fiscal and economic policy blunders like it has this session. The warning signs are clear: slowing growth and government expansion. That’s not the Texas model we’ve spent decades building, I remind lawmakers at Texas for Fiscal Responsibility.
One key failure so far is the legislature’s watered-down universal school choice bill. The Education Savings Account (ESA) program is capped at 100,000 students—just 1.5% of Texas’ 6.3 million school-aged children—and comes with additional restrictions. Texas needs a single-pot funding model, where every dollar follows every student, regardless of income or school type.
Income limits further restrict ESA eligibility, leaving out many higher-income families. I spoke about this in The Lion.
But that’s not all. Texas lawmakers are on the verge of another costly mistake. HB 149, an artificial intelligence regulation bill, could cost taxpayers over $55 million in just five years, create 20 new government jobs, and grant the Attorney General broad authority to penalize developers and businesses for vague violations—like “discrimination” based on political views or biometric identifiers.
3. What is Threatening the Markets?
The idea that taking profits away from businesses will somehow help everyday people is backward—and it’s gaining traction in legislatures across the country. New laws propose strict regulations, price caps, and taxes, especially targeting tech and insurance. As I wrote for the Pelican Institute, profit isn’t the problem; it’s part of the solution.
Another looming threat? Tariffs. President Trump’s 90-day pause has offered some temporary relief, but uncertainty remains. There are better paths forward in our disputes with China, like fair trade deals and international partnerships, as I wrote at American Thinker.
4. How Can States Improve on Taxes & Spending?
South Carolina had a historic chance to lead on tax reform—if it stayed committed to spending less, taxing less, and reforming transparently. I discussed H. 4216, which passed this week in the House but died by sine die, in an interview with FITSNews.
As the 2025 Kansas legislative session wraps up, we must ask: Did lawmakers do enough to help Kansas grow? While there was no significant push for school choice or spending restraint, tax reform did make progress. Read my full analysis at the Kansas Policy Institute.
5. Are Medicaid Cuts a Crisis?
As Congress and the Trump administration weigh tightening eligibility and trimming Medicaid, many claim we’re facing a crisis. But Dr. Deane Waldman and I see an opportunity to return the program to its original purpose: serving the truly needy—low-income children, pregnant women, seniors, and people with disabilities. Read our recent op-ed in the Herald Review.
What I’m Learning
Econception: Great discussion on Medicaid reform with Brian Blase, Ph.D., Dr. Paul Winfree, and Dominic Pino.
The Unseen and The Unsaid: Building an abundant future requires both cutting red tape and fixing the tax code, argue Adam Michel and Veronique de Rugy.
Kite & Key Media: Do handouts like universal basic income actually work? Watch this insightful video to find out.
Google: A new report explores energy resources, technological advancements, and grid constraints—offering key policy recommendations to unleash and expand America's power and efficiency.
Washington Post: Strong commentary by Dominic Pino on how the economic pain of tariffs has yet to fully hit.
American Consumer Institute: The Meta lawsuit shows that the Trump and Biden administrations may not be so different when it comes to regulating Big Tech.
Americans for Tax Reforms: The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act has benefited Texans. Congress should make these tax cuts permanent!
Wall Street Journal: Thoughtful commentary on how Medicaid reform, done right, can protect the vulnerable, encourage private coverage, and save taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars.
The Debt Dispatch: Great round-up from Romina Boccia and Ivane Nachkebia on why our current economic outlook should be a wake-up call—especially on tariffs.
John Stossel: Corey DeAngelis makes the case for abolishing the Department of Education.
Tax Foundation: What are the long-term economic consequences if tariffs are made permanent? A critical analysis.
Mises Institute: For decades, America warned other nations about socialism and government overreach—yet we’ve gradually adopted many of the same damaging policies.
American Action Forum: Jeffrey Westling offers a clear summary of the privacy and First Amendment concerns raised by the App Store Accountability Act.
Books I’m Reading:
Just finished reading Mel Robbins’ The Let Them Theory. An excellent book on freeing yourself from the opinions and judgements of others to live the life that is best for you. Great ideas here for letting you prosper!
Let People Prosper Show Podcast
The Let People Prosper Show features deep discussions on hot topics:
Episode 145 (Thursday):
Are we really in control of our government—or is it hiding in plain sight? I interview John Hart, CEO of Open the Books, to expose the hidden costs of big government and the vital need for transparency in public spending. We explore how real-time data, civic engagement, and digital accountability are reshaping the conversation around fiscal responsibility before it’s too late.
Episode 146 (Next Thursday):
Why is the electricity market so broken—and what can we do to fix it? Don’t miss my discussion with Glen Lyons, a Texas-based energy expert and advocate for Consumer Regulated Electricity (CRE). Glen shares his journey from advertising to energy policy, offering unique insights on ERCOT’s dysfunction, the original sin of electricity monopolies, and how free markets—not central planning—can finally unleash innovation, reliability, and cost savings for consumers.Did you miss This Week’s Economy episode 110?
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