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8. Institutions Matter: My Time At The White House

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8. Institutions Matter: My Time At The White House

Families and fiscal rules are needed more than ever as noted in my podcast interview about my time at the White House and more.

Vance Ginn, Ph.D.
Dec 6, 2020
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8. Institutions Matter: My Time At The White House

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Hello Friend!

I hope you had a blessed Thanksgiving however you chose to celebrate it. I had a nice time with my family from Houston at our place in Round Rock and then a nice time with my in-laws in Port Aransas, which is on the beach near Corpus Christi, Texas. The picture below is of my youngest son playing in the water.

It’s been an interesting time that’s normally spent with family. But many have decided not to do so, which is a decision that should be left to individuals instead of politicians trying to tell people how to act.

One thing that I’ve been concerned about is missing time with my family and friends and never seeing them again—for many reasons. The COVID-19 situation is serious and one that should be taken seriously, as noted in my previous newsletter, but it is also a situation where I have taken time to grow closer to God, family, and friends when so much else seems to be uncertain. This has given me calm during this storm as I know that these relationships are what matter over time while the novel coronavirus is just a blip in the long run scheme of things.

Of course, the repercussions of authoritarian forms of government interventions may last much longer, which is something that we must continue to push back on when necessary.

To be frank, I think we should open Texas and all states, as the shutdowns were a mistake, and instead do what should have been done in the beginning and have the government play an informational role to provide guidance on best practices while targeting resources to vulnerable populations and areas as I outlined in a recent commentary at the Austin American-Statesman. I say this with a great deal of humility as there are many factors that go into making these decisions and I understand that I could be wrong. But I also believe strongly in the power of liberty and allowing individuals, families, and entrepreneurs in an inclusive institutional framework (like the Texas Model) to find the best path to dealing with these sorts of crises rather than the government.

I discuss this and more during my latest interview with George Saey on his new podcast. Please listen here:

Twitter avatar for @VanceGinn
Vance Ginn @VanceGinn
Check out my episode on @GeorgeSeayTX's podcast. Good discussion on my time at @OMBPress @WhiteHouse, the economics of trade and fiscal policy, the current economic situation, and how to deal with #COVID19. buzzsprout.com/1428493/661538… @TPPF #txlege #Congress @bstein80 @yct @aier
buzzsprout.comEp. 7: Dr. Vance Ginn, Chief Economist, Texas Public Policy Foundation - Seay the Future PodcastVance Ginn, Ph.D., is the Chief Economist at the Texas Public Policy Foundation. Previously, Dr. Ginn served as the Associate Director for Economic Policy of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) at the Executive Office of the President during...
5:12 AM ∙ Dec 6, 2020

With that said, thank you for reading this Let People Prosper newsletter. Please keep sharing it with others who may be interested in our productive discussions. May you have a great weekend and week while being blessed with good health, prosperity, and wisdom every day.

Here are a few updates that I’d like to share on the COVID-19 situation in Texas, the fiscal and economic situations in Texas and the U.S., and more.

OPEN TEXAS AND AMERICA

Usa and Texas Flag (various Stock Footage Video (100% Royalty-free) 6893944  | Shutterstock

Overview of COVID-19 in Texas: There’s an improving picture in many areas of Texas but there remain challenges ahead as cases are elevated and fatalities could continue rising though at a slower rate than during the summer. The DFW area is now on the more restricted list after 7 consecutive days above 15% of COVID hospitalizations as a share of total hospital capacity, though it has moved below 15% today.

  • After a brief decline in COVID cases during the week of Thanksgiving, the 7-day trend is up again to about 12K, with today’s new cases of 11,672. Daily new fatalities were reported of 247 today with some going back several days based on which day was reported on death certificates, as this will likely continue to rise.

  • There remains increased hospital capacity available across most of the state’s TSAs with every TSA having at least 10% available, except in TSA T (Laredo) with 7.4%. Testing remains on average over 100K per day and the positivity rate remains elevated.

  • The case-fatality rate looks to have declined since the highs during the summer highs as there are indications of improvements in therapeutics, younger and healthier population infected, and better utilization of hospital resources to care for patients.

  • While debatable, improvements could be from a more targeted, timely, and temporary policy approach since moving to TSAs and sending resources where needed most by Governor Abbott.

Texas Governor Abbott Metric Overview:

  • Per GA’s metric of CV19 hospitalizations/total hospital capacity for seven consecutive days, TSAs below 15% can have most businesses expand to 75% capacity, keep state mask mandate, and bars (and others) open to 50% capacity with the approval of the county’s judge.

  • TSA A (Amarillo), TSA B (Lubbock), TSA E (Dallas/Ft. Worth—New), I (El Paso), J (Midland/Odessa), M (Waco), and TSA T (Laredo) are reported on the list of further restrictions, so 37% of Texans are at 50% capacity + other restrictions while 63% of Texans are at 75% capacity + other restrictions.

  • This metric is declining some statewide but remains well below the 17.0% average for July.

Hospital Overview Statewide:

  • COVID-19 hospitalizations up 3.7% (to 8,916) from 7 days ago and up 8.7% from 14 days ago, the level is below the 9,713 average for July

  • Available beds as a share of staffed inpatient beds are down to 19.1%, below the 21.7% average for July

  • Available beds down 13.7% (to 11,848) from 7 days ago and up 2.5% from 14 days  ago, the level is below the 11,926 average for July

  • Occupied beds up 12.2% (to 50,048) from 7 days ago and down 1.8% from 14 days ago, the level is above the 43,397 average for July

  • Staffed inpatient beds up 6.1% (to 61,896) from 7 days ago and down 1.0% from 14 days ago, the level is above the 55,323 average for July

Here’s my latest oped on why Texas shouldn’t lockdown:

Twitter avatar for @VanceGinn
Vance Ginn @VanceGinn
Key in my latest oped: "#Texas can’t get to zero cases & deaths without eliminating liberty & livelihoods, so let’s better allocate efforts in a targeted, temporary, & timely way until the vaccine is available & population immunity occurs. texaspolicy.com/governments-cu… @TPPF #COVID19
texaspolicy.comGovernment’s cure shouldn’t be worse than COVID-19COVID-19 continues to take a toll in the U.S., with more than 13 million cases and over 260,000 deaths. The rise in cases has led to interventions by state governments. Given that the health threat is real, we should learn from what has worked —and what has not. That means we must work hard on a...
10:37 PM ∙ Dec 1, 2020
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This rant by Rick Santelli should help to provide a reason for another push against a big government like his rant in 2009 that helped start the Tea Party movement.

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Vance Ginn @VanceGinn
Could this be @RickSantelli’s retort that wakes people up like his take a decade ago that helped start the #TeaParty movement?
Twitter avatar for @RexChapman
Rex Chapman🏇🏼 @RexChapman
Things escalated quickly on CNBC this morning. This is fantastic...https://t.co/BMlluNDhE5
3:15 AM ∙ Dec 5, 2020
15Likes8Retweets

Keynesianism should be dead but it keeps rearing its ugly head. Here why:

Twitter avatar for @VanceGinn
Vance Ginn @VanceGinn
Some good points by Mervyn King on how demand isn’t the problem now, which is why Keynesian “stimulus” won’t work (& doesn’t work because supply comes first). #RESTARTAct is better than what #Congress is debating: texaspolicy.com/overview-of-th… ⁦@TPPF⁩
bloomberg.comBloomberg - Are you a robot?
1:05 PM ∙ Dec 4, 2020
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TEXAS ECONOMIC AND FISCAL SITUATION

It’s been a busy couple of weeks in Texas. Here are a few of the key issues that I’ve highlighted that you should be interested in. Be sure to click on these tweets to see the full thread for more information.

The Legislative Budget Board (LBB) in Texas recently met to discuss the economic situation and the state’s spending limit. Here’s more in this thread:

Twitter avatar for @VanceGinn
Vance Ginn @VanceGinn
#Texas LBB hearing happening now where: 1) @txcomptroller @Glenn_Hegar will give them an update on economic and fiscal situations 2) they will determine the state’s spending limit (link below) Hopefully, the LBB will use pop+inf again as the limit’s metric. @TPPF #txlege https://t.co/eHIHwAm3T7
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Twitter avatar for @Glenn_Hegar
Glenn Hegar @Glenn_Hegar
Today I will update the LBB on crucial data needed for lawmakers as they begin the work of the upcoming legislative session. #txlege Find more info and how to watch here https://t.co/cGMnseZssV
8:03 PM ∙ Nov 30, 2020
1Like2Retweets

The LBB recently determined the state’s spending limit for the upcoming 2022-23 budget. Here’s a good thread with an overview:

Twitter avatar for @VanceGinn
Vance Ginn @VanceGinn
Given @txcomptroller's improved fiscal picture & #LBB's pop & inflation spending limit of 7.06% on about 1/2 of 2022-23 budget, chance to spend less than pop+inf of 5% on entire budget with focus on cuts to assure the Conservative #Texas Budget. texaspolicy.com/2022-23-conser… #txlege
texaspolicy.com2022-23 Conservative Texas BudgetThe 2022-23 Conservative Texas Budget sets a maximum threshold for the state’s budget that will be passed during the 2021 Legislature so government grows by less than taxpayers’ ability to pay for it. Key points: Texas’s state government budget has often grown considerably faster than Texans’ abilit…
9:35 PM ∙ Nov 30, 2020

Sin taxes like the carbon tax and marijuana tax are really just social engineering instead of ways to support more economic growth. More here in my interview:

Twitter avatar for @VanceGinn
Vance Ginn @VanceGinn
My take: 'Sin taxes,' or raising taxes generally, won't help #Texas economy. @TPPF kpvi.com/news/national_… @KPVI @SenJaneNelson @Burrows4TX @TeamBettencourt @GregAbbott_TX @DanPatrick #txlege @thecentersquare
12:14 AM ∙ Dec 4, 2020

Shutdowns are hurting families hard:

Twitter avatar for @VanceGinn
Vance Ginn @VanceGinn
.@thecentersquare on economic & fiscal situation in #Texas. My quote: “These closures affect the economy, affect people’s lives and livelihood because now they can’t have a job and that makes it difficult for them to put food on the table.” thecentersquare.com/texas/sales-ta… #txlege @TPPF
thecentersquare.comSales tax revenue up though businesses close across Texas(The Center Square) – The pandemic has been the grim reaper of sorts to some businesses, with more than 1,500 closing in Austin, Texas, 1,000 in Round Rock and similar
5:01 AM ∙ Dec 1, 2020

U.S. ECONOMIC AND FISCAL SITUATION

Here’s my overview on the U.S. jobs report:

Twitter avatar for @VanceGinn
Vance Ginn @VanceGinn
Here’s what you need to know about yesterday’s #JobsReport. https://t.co/IHaE4VOwmV
Twitter avatar for @VanceGinn
Vance Ginn @VanceGinn
#JobsReport: Job creation slowed in Nov, well below expectations. Payroll jobs in private sector were ⬆️344,000. Unrate is ⬇️8 % pts from April high but 3.2 % pts higher than Feb. Unemployed, at 10.7M, trends down in Nov but is 4.9M higher than Feb. @WSJ graphics below. https://t.co/rKvdW12HoA https://t.co/CNt10laX8X
1:10 PM ∙ Dec 5, 2020

Need for sound fiscal policy:

Twitter avatar for @VanceGinn
Vance Ginn @VanceGinn
Research finds this fantasyland doesn't work & benefits mostly upper-income earners & whites. What would help is sound fiscal policy of spending relief from govt programs that don't support limited govt and cutting taxes. #ResponsibleAmericanBudget #Congress #studentloans
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Twitter avatar for @ewarren
Elizabeth Warren @ewarren
Canceling student loan debt would put money back in people’s pockets. That’s money they can spend to support local small businesses, or even start their own. That’s money they can use to save up for a home. That’s money that can boost our whole economy.
11:26 PM ∙ Dec 3, 2020
3Likes3Retweets

Check out this thread for an overview of the progressive economic and policy team put forward by Biden:

Twitter avatar for @VanceGinn
Vance Ginn @VanceGinn
As expected, #Biden will nominate/appoint very progressive economists & policy folks Expect rollback of #Trump’s inclusive policies which support prosperity & push of extractive policies which don’t They’d be wise to at least wait until economy recovers wsj.com/articles/biden…
Twitter avatar for @paulkrugman
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
I'm very happy with every name I'm hearing. The contrast with the Trump creatures is, of course, overwhelming. But pretty strong contrast even with Obama 1/ https://t.co/JERLNDUCkm
10:22 PM ∙ Nov 29, 2020

Here’s my quote that has really been on my mind recently as I continue to find ways to reduce the size and scope of government by implementing fiscal rules that limit government spending.

Twitter avatar for @VanceGinn
Vance Ginn @VanceGinn
#MiltonFriedman #Truth #facts #quotes #quoteoftheday #fiscalstimulus #fiscalpolicy #ResponsibleAmericanBudget #ConservativeTexasBudget #TaxTwitter #economy #EconTwitter
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11:28 PM ∙ Dec 4, 2020
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And finally, it was sad to hear that the free market economist Walter Williams passed this week. Here is my quote along with a press release by TPPF:

Twitter avatar for @VanceGinn
Vance Ginn @VanceGinn
“There are few people who so eloquently explained how people can prosper than economist #WalterWilliams. While it’s a day to mourn his loss, let’s also celebrate his many gifts to us & continue to build on them, so every person has the best chance to thrive—like he did.” @TPPF
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1:06 PM ∙ Dec 3, 2020
14Likes11Retweets

Thanks again for reading! I hope this newsletter is marginally beneficial to you and will hopefully help us to find opportunities to let people prosper.

Vance Ginn, Ph.D. | www.vanceginn.com | #LetPeopleProsper

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8. Institutions Matter: My Time At The White House

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