49. Looking Up: First WSJ Commentary & End of Special Session in Texas

I highlight my first WSJ commentary on economic costs of Biden's agenda contributing to inflation and job losses, summarize the good and bad of the TX Legislature, and note improving COVID situation.

Hello Friend,

This Let People Prosper newsletter gives my latest takes on what’s going on with Texas, the U.S., and COVID-19. These takes are based on the overwhelming evidence that free-market capitalism best lets people prosper. Please subscribe and share.

• Personal take: Another week in paradise. We’re blessed overall with good visits with family and friends here recently. Fortunately, the third special session in Texas is over after being on the grind since basically January 1. It will take me some time to wind down after going nonstop for months. But the fight for liberty and prosperity never sleeps! I was re-energized with the opportunity to have my first publication in the WALL STREET JOURNAL this week on the costs of 5 to 9 million job losses from Biden’s Build Back Better agenda. It was a pleasure to co-author this one with one of my favorite economists Casey Mulligan of the University of Chicago who also served in the Trump White House. And this piece was mentioned several times by Larry Kudlow on his Fox Business show and Ben Shapiro read most of the article on his show.

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  NEW: Don’t miss my @WSJ commentary with ⁦@caseybmulligan⁩. We explain how the [“#BuildBackBetter”] plan would tax those who produce and subsidize those who don’t—a poor recipe for growth. ⁦@TPPF⁩ ⁦@Comm4Prosperity⁩ #congress #txlege

  

  wsj.comOpinion | ‘Build Back Better’ Would Sink the Labor MarketThe plan would tax those who produce and subsidize those who don’t—a poor recipe for growth.

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  #Kudlow, @SteveForbesCEO, & @StephenMoore at time 5:00 in this clip @FoxBusiness discuss the @WSJopinion piece by @caseybmulligan and me on how #Biden's #BuildBackBetter agenda will destroy the American economy. video.foxbusiness.com/v/6277897915001 @TPPF @Comm4Prosperity #txlege #congress

  

• In other news, TPPF’s fantastic CEO Kevin Roberts was recently hired as president of the Heritage Foundation in D.C. I’ve learned much from his mentorship and friendship over the years so he will be missed but I think he will do much good there. Another friend and mentor and current Executive Director Greg Sindelar will replace Kevin as CEO on Dec. 1. There will likely be some transition costs for a bit but I look forward to the upcoming successes of TPPF for people in Texas and beyond soon. Also, I had the extraordinary opportunity to be on stage at an event with Texas Congressmen Dan Crenshaw and Kevin Brady to talk about the economy and the policy environment. I’ll be on Congressman Dan Crenshaw’s podcast soon talking about these issues.

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  Great discussion with @DanCrenshawTX & @RepKevinBrady this evening on how best to #letpeopleprosper in #America. #killthebills @RepDanCrenshaw #congress

  

• Hot take: The third special session ended earlier this week. There were some successes but the big miss was the lack of substantial, broad-based property tax relief. Here’s my take:

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  NEW @TPPF commentary by Vance Ginn, Rod Bordelon, & Kody Smith "It’s time to call fair and foul on #txlege; there were some homeruns, some wild pitches & even some unforced errors. And ultimately, it’s the taxpayers who either win or lose." Find out:

  

  thecannononline.comThe Struggle for Taxpayers Is RealIt’s playoff baseball time here in Texas—go ’Stros! But baseball fans know everything depends on the umpires—as the great Bill Klem said, when asked whether a ball was fair or foul, “It ain’t nothing until I call it.” It’s time for us to call fair and foul on the Texas Legislature; there were some h…

  Why not a fourth special session to go big!

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  How about adding property tax relief that's substantial and for all by compressing school district M&O rate with surplus funds of $7B in GR & $3B in ARPA to call. This would help to eliminate property taxes by 2033. More: texaspolicy.com/lower-taxes-be… @GregAbbott_TX @TPPF #txlege

  

  Dan Patrick @DanPatrick

  TX Senate just finished a strong conservative session. But more needs to be done. Senate added felony penalties for illegal voting, but the House cut to a misdemeanor. House needs to pass an election forensic audit bill. I support @GovAbbott calling us back to pass both. #txlege

Now for the latest on Texas, D.C., and COVID-19 in Texas.

TEXAS ECONOMIC AND FISCAL SITUATION

• Here’s my take along with others on what Texas should have done with ARPA funds. The Texas Legislature followed most of our recommendations but missed some key opportunities to provide property tax relief.

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  .@TPPF event urges #Texas to set 'proper example' on using #ARPA funds. Nice @austin_journal recap of my discussion with @Taxeconomist and @patrickmgleason on best practices in #Texas & other states. austinjournal.com/stories/609260… @ALEC_states @GroverNorquist #txlege

  

  austinjournal.comConference urges Texas to set ‘proper example’ on spending American Rescue Plan fundsThe American Rescue Plan Act is providing $40 billion to the state of Texas and a panel discussion examined how that money should best be used.

• Texas needs school choice ASAP!

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  #txlege, other states continue to outperform #Texas when it comes to #schoolchoice, which is one of the best equalizers of opportunity. @TPPF @erinvaldeztx

  

  Corey A. DeAngelis @DeAngelisCorey

  BREAKING: Michigan House Education Committee just passed a bill to fund students instead of systems.

U.S. ECONOMIC AND FISCAL SITUATION

• The chances of Biden’s Build Back Better agenda are fading because it’s something Americans don’t want and can’t afford.

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  NEW Commentary Brandon Arnold @NTU & Vance Ginn @TPPF: #Washington’s $5 Trillion Reckless Spending Bill Will Hit the Pockets of South #Texas Families. thecannononline.com/washingtons-5-… #txlege #congress @GregAbbott_TX

  

  thecannononline.comWashington’s $5 Trillion Reckless Spending Bill Will Hit the Pockets of South Texas FamiliesGiven Texas’s commitment to lower taxes and limited government, it’s not surprising that the economy here is booming. Allowing people and businesses to keep more of their hard-earned money is the not-so-secret reason Texas often leads the country in job creation, economic growth, and inbound domesti…

• That’s a good thing because America shouldn’t be subject to this path to socialism.

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  #Inflation is a tax. Bad policies of Washington should stop taxing us more. Watch my interview: ntd.com/expert-governm… #KilltheBills #ReturntoNormal #EndQE #NeedRules @news_ntd @PaulGreaney_NTD @TPPF @FreedomWorks @Heritage

  

• Check out my latest on the U.S. economy and how we should unleash it.

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  Check out my latest Economic Brief on the U.S. economy, which includes information on the labor market, economic growth, fiscal situation, and inflation. Read here: texaspolicy.com/an-insiders-in… @TPPF

  

  texaspolicy.comAn insider’s insight on today’s economy.U.S. Economic Situation—October 2021 Governments’ forced business closures and mandates in response to COVID-19 resulted in much economic destruction during what I am calling the “shutdown recession.” Returns to normal, to work, and to pro-growth polices are essential for the economic recovery and p…

• If populism is going to persist, this should be the message.

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  “Asked whether government should do more or less to solve the country’s problems, 52% of Americans said government is doing too much.” The era of big government is over. That’s the populist message again. Pass it on. #txlege #congress

  

  wsj.comOpinion | Big Government Isn’t Popular AgainGallup finds a decline in public support for more taxes and services.

• It’s unfortunate when some claim to understand economics.

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  Bad “economic” take. Inflation hurts poor most. Mass unemployment was caused by govt actions during shutdown recession. Govt policy is causing many to remain unemployed & to inflationary problems. Big govt socialism must end it or we get this nonsense that crushes poor most.

  

  Jason Furman @jasonfurman

  Most of the economic problems we're facing (inflation, supply chains, etc.) are high class problems. We wouldn't have had them if the unemployment rate was still 10 percent. We would instead have had a much worse problem.

• #TeamPersistent inflation

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  #TeamPersistent #Inflation "Economists see supply-chain disruptions, labor shortages as bigger risks to the economy into next year than Covid-19," @WSJ survey finds. wsj.com/articles/suppl… @TPPF #txlege #congress #Fed

  

  wsj.comSupply-Chain Bottlenecks, Elevated Inflation to Last Well Into Next Year, Survey FindsEconomists see supply constraints, labor shortages as bigger risks to economy than Covid-19, WSJ survey finds

• More on inflation.

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  Headline & chained CPI inflation reported +5% Y/Y in Sept. for the highest #inflation in 31 years. Inflation has staying power from #Fed’s +20% Y/Y in monetary base & #Biden’s bad policies. Need to end these bad policies & move to rules-based policies. @TPPF #txlege #congress

  

  

  

  BLS-Labor Statistics @BLS_gov

  CPI for all items rises 0.4% in September; food, shelter among indexes rising https://t.co/MdFNWoD78N #CPI #BLSdata

COVID-19 IN TEXAS AND BEYOND

• Latest: TX DSHS Covid-related data here. First 2 major waves had restrictions in place, but people forget and hospital data aren’t always best. Gov. Greg Abbott lifted state restrictions on Mar. 10, 2021, and blocked local restrictions on May 21, 2021. Things are improving in Wave #3 without shutdowns and mandates. Choose freedom over fear, mandates, and control.

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  NEW: #COVID19 in #Texas continues to improve without govt mandated masks or vaccines or shutdowns. #freedom Avail staffed beds=21.7% (#Austin=23.6%) Case-Fat Rate: Wave #1=2.5%, #2=1.8%, #3=2.0% Since 3/20: Fat/Pop=0.2%, Case/Pop=11.7%, CFR=1.9% #txlege @TPPF @GregAbbott_TX

  

  

  

  

  

  Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

  NEW 10/11/21 #COVID19TX Wave #3 Improving: Rt=0.72, 7-dy avgs, hospitalizations Available staffed beds=16.9% (#Austin=19.6%) Case-Fat Rate: Wave #1=2.5%, #2=1.8%, #3=1.9% Since 3/2020: Fat/Pop=0.2%, Case/Pop=11.6%, CFR=1.9% Freedom>Fear #txlege @therealarod1984 @aginnt @TPPF https://t.co/v0CrFQOrlf https://t.co/HpddF0W1cl

Closing Thoughts

Good quote on the need for humility by a great economist Friedrich Hayek:

Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

#truth #letpeopleprosper #Hayek #economics #EconTwitter

My prayers this week are focused on the following:

Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

Psalm 23:6 #forever #Amen

Thank you for reading and sharing this newsletter. I pray that we continue to follow Him all the days of our lives so we can dwell in His house forever. Many blessings to you and yours!

Vance Ginn, Ph.D. | www.vanceginn.com | #LetPeopleProsper