46. Shutdown Looms: DC in Disarray while Texas Finds Footing
In this newsletter, I discuss the fiscal insanity in DC, the opportunity to eliminate property taxes in TX, and the improving COVID-19 situation by choosing freedom over fear.
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Personal take: I was in DC last week for the first time since we moved back to Round Rock, TX in May 2020 after my one-year hiatus as the chief economist of OMB at the White House. It was exciting to return as there is something about that city that gets my blood flowing. Maybe it’s the history and the astonishment about what’s been achieved there. Or maybe it’s the fact there is so much dysfunction currently. Either way, I enjoyed time with other fiscal experts from states across the nation as we discussed best practices for using ARPA funds, enacting our conservative budget approach, and returning surpluses to taxpayers. We had a great discussion and I look forward to what is accomplished from these efforts. If you’re interested in these, please contact me. TPPF had a successful Victory Summit with key speakers and top-notch people in the movement. The family is doing well as it was great to get some rest this past weekend and celebrate the 11th anniversary of my home church, The Exchange Church. I’m not even going to talk about the beatdown that Texas Tech, my alma mater, took from the University of Texas. Ugh! But now there’s more work to do!
Hot take: The fiscal insanity in D.C. has me believing even more that states are the place where sound policy must happen to best let people prosper. We can do this by returning the federal government to its constitutional role in our republic of only preserving liberty through the national defense to protect us, judicial system to uphold the rule of law, and very few public goods. Such a federal government would better be the last resort in a system with a flourishing institutional framework of families, civil society, and state governments. Achieving such a goal would substantially improve the nonsense that we’re currently dealing with. But this nonsense is giving us opportunities to make improvements rather than just appropriately rejecting the bad policies. We ought not miss this opportunity!
Wally The #Socialist by Scott Adams dilbert.com/strip/2021-09-… via @Dilbert_Daily Capitalism > Socialism @TPPF #txlege #congress
Check out this TPPF virtual event and register here.
Now for the latest on Texas, D.C., and COVID-19 in Texas.
TEXAS ECONOMIC AND FISCAL SITUATION
Don’t miss this discussion today on how institutions matter.
Texas has a good opportunity to put in motion the elimination of property taxes in Texas through these three key bills during the current special session, which relief was recently added to the call by Gov. Abbott.
Property👏Tax👏Relief👏 Missed 1! #HB91, #HB90, #SB1/#HB89 And consider #ARPA funds for tax relief after UI debt payment/replenishment. Read: thecannononline.com/responsible-bu… #txlege @TPPF @DanPatrick @DadePhelan @TeamBettencourt @Burrows4TX @TomOliverson @DrGregBonnen @SenJaneNelson
Vance Ginn @VanceGinn
Property 👏 Tax 👏 Relief 👏 #HB90 🎉 #SB1 🎉 👉https://t.co/yyKNQgj18w🔥 #txlege @TPPF @DanPatrick @DadePhelan @TeamBettencourt @Burrows4TX @TomOliverson @DrGregBonnen @SenJaneNelson @TXGOPCaucus @TexasHouse https://t.co/zFDG0vNuZ7Latest on personal income growth in states.
How to allocate ARPA funds, if we’re going to use it.
.@austintexasgov, nope! Here’s how #txlege should allocate $16.8B in #ARPA funds & reject rest: 1) $7.2B for UI trust fund replenishment & debt payment (#SB2) 2) Property tax relief 3) Border wall Details: texaspolicy.com/keep-texas-tex… @GregAbbott_TX @DanPatrick @DadePhelan @TPPFBrad Johnson @bradj_TX
New: 13 big city mayors request that #txlege spend its $16B ARPA funds on various "key municipal needs." Important note: Local govs in TX already received $10B of ARPA funds. Below is what Austin/Travis Co spent its allotment on from its April plan https://t.co/aqfqvkdy6b https://t.co/QICQYYVdZb https://t.co/snP8ujqTI1Good overview of what went wrong during the February freeze in Texas.
The Great #Texas Freeze of 2021 explained by @ISAACforTexas @Life_Powered_ on @prageru. youtu.be/KdMqCUa7XJk @AEA @IERenergy @TXOGA @TPPF
U.S. ECONOMIC AND FISCAL SITUATION
This is a rough week in D.C. regarding fiscal policy. There are four big things on the docket soon: 1) Continuing resolution for a budget needed before Oct. 1, 2) Movement to raise a clean debt ceiling, 3) $1.2 trillion American (Anti-) Jobs Plan, and 4) $5 trillion American (Anti-) Family Plan.
#BuildBackBroker, or Better Yet… Limit Spending with a #ResponsibleAmericanBudget. thecannononline.com/build-back-bro… @TPPF @housebudgetGOP @RepublicanStudy @RepJimBanks @RepThomasMassie @chiproytx @RepDanCrenshaw @VanTaylorTX @BudgetGOP @GOPLeader @Sen_JoeManchin @SenatorSinema
Ideally, these would all fail with the continuing resolution only passing if there are restrictions with a debt ceiling increase much like the Responsible American Budget or the Budget Control Act of 2011. Alternatively, the Republicans could force the Democrats to raise the debt ceiling with the reconciliation bill so all the cost of the fiscal insanity is on the Democrats.
My guess is that there will be a short-term shutdown of the federal government given the political dynamics going on, they will then pass a short-term CR, the $1.2 trillion bill will pass, and the reconciliation bill at a much lower amount will be tied with the debt ceiling increase.
Again, my preference would be for them to actually pass a budget, tie spending limitations to the debt ceiling increase, and kill the Build Back Better plan nonsense that will reverse the recovery.
TPPF provides the economic effects of President Biden’s “Build Back Better” Plan using conservative estimates, as the cost will likely be much higher. The costs certainly aren’t zero as Biden recently claimed.
.@TPPF Economic Estimates Of The Build Back Better Plan texaspolicy.com/economic-estim… #txlege #congress @StatesTrust @Comm4Prosperity @AFPhq @amrenewctr @A1Policy @FreedomWorks @StatePolicy @RepublicanStudy @freedomcaucus #BuildBackBetter @StephenMoore @FoxBusiness @news_ntd @OANN
During the House Budget hearing, Congressman Michael Burgess and Congresswoman Ashley Hinson highlighted key points in our research. We will be releasing a complete paper on these policy changes and results soon.
What’s their goal?
Envy is 1 of 7 deadly sins. The tax code ought not be used for one’s subjective determination of morality. These bad policies won’t result in the intended effects as people will pay for them with higher prices, more unemployed, & lower wages. Is that their intention?🤔 https://t.co/5h9y5QmeE4Joe Biden @JoeBiden
While typical working Americans pay their taxes, the top 1% evade an estimated $160 billion in taxes each year. It’s wrong—and it’s past time the ultra-wealthy and corporations paid their fair share.
WHAT’S UP WITH COVID-19 IN TEXAS AND BEYOND
Latest on the COVID-19 situation in Texas: TX DSHS Covid-related data here. First two major waves had restrictions in place, but people often forget and hospital data aren’t always the best. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott lifted state restrictions on March 10, 2021, and blocked local restrictions on May 21, 2021. Things are improving in this Wave #3 without shutdowns and mandates.
Must choose freedom over fear, mandates, and control.
NEW 9/26/21 #COVIDTX19 Wave #3 Improving Rt=0.59, 7-day avgs, hospitalizations Available staffed beds=14.7% (#Austin=16.0%) Case-Fat Rate: Wave #1=2.5%, #2=1.84%, #3=1.77% Since 3/2020: Fat/Pop=0.2%, Case/Pop=11.3%, CFR=1.88% Freedom > Fear/Control @TPPF #txlege @justin_hart
Vance Ginn @VanceGinn
NEW 9/19/21 #COVIDTX19 Rt=0.62, 7-day avgs, hospitalizations=Better Wave #3 Available staffed beds=13.2% (#Austin=13.4%) Case-Fat Rate: Wave #1=2.5%, #2=1.84%, #3=1.68% Since 03/2020: Fat/Pop=0.2%, Case/Pop=11.1%, CFR=1.85% Freedom > Fear/Control @TPPF @GregAbbott_TX #txlege https://t.co/K7MCWj3THK https://t.co/aPNS99dmz4
Closing Thoughts
Much noise about what businesses should do, but Milton Friedman says this:
My prayers this week are focused on the following point by my pastor:
Thank you for reading and sharing this newsletter. I pray that we fail often, learn from our mistakes, and put more trust in our Lord instead of ourselves. Many blessings to you and yours, and have a prosperous week.
Vance Ginn, Ph.D. | www.vanceginn.com | #LetPeopleProsper
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