Trump’s Policy Order Is Backwards—and Americans Can Feel It
Why leading with tariffs instead of freedom—and ignoring spending—creates uncertainty instead of growth
Hello Friends,
Over the years, whether I’m sitting across the table from lawmakers, talking with small business owners, or answering questions after a speech, I hear the same thing again and again:
“Something feels off.”
People may not use the language of economics, but they don’t need to. They know when prices stay high longer than expected. They know when hiring slows. They know when decisions that once felt straightforward now feel risky.
That’s where we are right now—and it’s not because markets suddenly stopped working.
What Experience Teaches You
One lesson I’ve learned from policy work and countless conversations is this: order matters.
Not just what policies are pursued, but the sequence in which they’re rolled out—and whether government is willing to restrain itself. Markets respond quickly to incentives and even faster to uncertainty.
Right now, the Trump administration is leaning into tariffs and trade restrictions—which, in practice, are taxes paid by Americans—before delivering meaningful deregulation, broad tax relief, or spending restraint. I’ve seen this movie before, and it never ends the way politicians expect.
Why the First Trump Term Felt Different
During Trump’s first term, policy moved in a more growth-friendly direction early on. Regulations were rolled back across energy, labor, and finance. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act lowered marginal tax rates and improved incentives to invest.
Just as important, spending growth—while still too high—was not yet fully unmoored. Businesses could reasonably believe that government wasn’t about to swallow more of the economy every year.
I remember business leaders telling me that, for the first time in years, they felt comfortable making long-term plans. They weren’t euphoric. They were confident. And confidence matters more than any single tax rate.
Tariffs Look Tough Until You See the Bill
In interviews, I’m often asked whether tariffs are a useful negotiating tool. My answer is always the same: tariffs are taxes.
They raise prices for families. They increase costs for small businesses. And they invite retaliation that hurts exporters.
Large corporations can hire lawyers and shift supply chains. Small businesses usually can’t. Families absorb the higher prices quietly.
That’s not economic strength. That’s government imposing costs and calling it strategy.
The Spending Problem Beneath Everything
Here’s what often gets missed in these debates: excessive government spending is the root problem.
Tariffs, inflation, and uncertainty are symptoms. Spending is the disease.
When government grows faster than the economy, it must:
Tax more
Borrow more
Inflate more
Intervene more
None of that is pro-growth. In fact, cutting spending is one of the most pro-growth policies available, because it reduces crowding out, lowers future tax expectations, and restores confidence that government won’t keep expanding its footprint.
I’ve written more about how this mindset drifted over time—and how both parties contributed to it—in Trump, Progressivism, and My Lessons Learned.
The Uncertainty I Hear About Firsthand
What worries people most isn’t even a single policy—it’s the sense that government no longer has limits.
I hear it from entrepreneurs who delay hiring because they don’t know what their tax and regulatory burden will be next year. From manufacturers unsure whether trade rules will change overnight. From families who hesitate to make big purchases because everything feels less predictable.
Markets don’t respond to speeches. They respond to credible limits on government power.
Same Instinct, New Language
This is where I’ve become more convinced over time: progressivism and populism increasingly share the same instinct.
Different rhetoric, same approach—expand government discretion, substitute political judgment for individual choice, and promise protection while reducing freedom. I’ve argued before that these two currents quietly converge, even when they argue loudly with each other.
A free society can’t thrive when government keeps reaching further into the economy, regardless of which party is doing it.
What Actually Works
If leaders want prosperity—not applause—the path is clear:
Cut spending first, then impose strict spending limit with a maximum of population growth and inflation
Reduce regulation
Lower taxes broadly and permanently, not picking winners and losers
Restore predictable rules, fiscal and monetary and trade
Allow people to trade freely, remove tariffs and protectionist policies and vibes should regain the power to tax and spend
Then get out of the way, less government is the best cure
This isn’t radical. It’s practical. And it’s what history shows works.
Final Thought
Economic freedom isn’t about ideology. It’s about humility—recognizing that people, not politicians, are best equipped to make decisions about their own lives.
If we want growth, opportunity, and stability, we have to start by shrinking government’s footprint, not rearranging how it intervenes.
If this resonates with you, subscribe and share. These conversations matter, and clarity and principles are in short supply.
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Let People Prosper
Vance Ginn, Ph.D.
President, Ginn Economic Consulting
Host, Let People Prosper Show
Chief Economist, Trump 45 White House OMB