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14. Keep Texas Texan: TPPF's Policy Orientation & More
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14. Keep Texas Texan: TPPF's Policy Orientation & More

In this newsletter, I share my thoughts on TPPF's recent Policy Orientation, the start of the 87th Texas Legislature, Biden's $1.9T COVID bill, the economic and fiscal situation, and much more.

Vance Ginn, Ph.D.
Jan 18, 2021
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14. Keep Texas Texan: TPPF's Policy Orientation & More
vanceginn.substack.com

Hello Friend!

This last week was the beginning of the 87th Texas Legislature. I highlight what you need to know from the first week of the session in Texas and provide valuable insights on what’s happening in D.C., but I start with the COVID-19 situation in Texas.

Twitter avatar for @VanceGinnVance Ginn @VanceGinn
Happy first day of the 87th Texas Legislature! Congrats to those who are being sworn in today! Here are wise words to help keep us guided during this incredible opportunity to improve the Texas experiment for Texans today and for those to come. #txlege #Texas #OpeningDay
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January 12th 2021

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Before we get started, here’s where you can find information on the Texas Legislature, and below is an overview of the fantastic 2021 Policy Orientation by the Texas Public Policy Foundation. After missing last year while I was at the White House for the first time since attending it as an intern in 2012, it was great to be back to meet with terrific people, learn from informative panels, and spend valuable time with my colleagues.

I’ve provided a few of the highlights below, but note that you can watch all of the panels and keynote speeches here. Here are tweets with links to the two panels that I moder\ated on the Texas budget and property taxes.

Twitter avatar for @VanceGinnVance Ginn @VanceGinn
Did you miss the informative discussion on the #Texas budget with @VoteGiovanni, @RepMaryGonzalez, & Mike Morrissey? Watch it at the link below. “Tough Calls on Shortfalls: The Fight to Preserve a Conservative #Texas Budget”
youtu.be/l2NZm0K167Q @TPPF #txlegeTough Calls on Shortfalls: The Fight to Preserve a Conservative Texas BudgetIn the wake of the COVID-19 crisis, budget writers will face important decision including how to incorporate federal funds, make strategic cuts to state spen...youtu.be

January 14th 2021

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Twitter avatar for @VanceGinnVance Ginn @VanceGinn
Did you miss the dynamic discussion on property taxes in #Texas with @TeamBettencourt, @CraigMMorgan, & @JamesQuinteroTX? No prob, watch it at the link below. “Holding the Line: Protecting Property Taxpayers from Greedy Governments”
youtu.be/zhN2ZiW-Nx0 #txlege @TPPFHolding the Line: Protecting Property Taxpayers from Greedy GovernmentsDuring the 86th Legislative Session, unprecedented protections were passed on behalf of property taxpayers. How did local governments respond? What were the ...youtu.be

January 14th 2021

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Here is other news that you may have missed along with my take. Enjoy!


OPEN TEXAS (AND AMERICA)

Usa and Texas Flag (various Stock Footage Video (100% Royalty-free) 6893944  | Shutterstock

Summary of COVID-19 Situation in Texas

  • As of Jan. 17, 18 of 22 Trauma Service Areas (TSA) are on the Governor’s list for elevated restrictions as business operating capacity is reduced from 75% to 50% that includes 95% of Texans, so the Texas economy is running at half speed.

  • As of Jan. 16, 7-day mvg average of new COVID-19 cases is flat at 2X July highs

  • As of Jan. 3, latest data for 7-day mvg avg of reported fatalities show it’s 23% below the July highs while new cases were 45% above those highs (lower CFR)

  • 24.3% of hospital beds are available statewide, which is up some recently and is near the 26% average since May and well above the low of 19% in July

  • Based on these data and others below, there are valid concerns about the Governor’s metric of COVID-19 patients/total hospital beds instead of available beds/total hospital beds as beds have increased over time by targeting resources where needed most, and about the continued mistake of blanket restrictions across Texas, which increase costs to Texans’ lives and livelihoods

Overview of COVID-19 in Texas

  • 7-day avg of new confirmed cases in Texas is flat recently but elevated at 19.5K on Jan. 16, with the highest new dailies of 26,990 on Dec. 29 and of 26,543 on Jan. 5—likely from more people congregating over Christmas and New Year’s

  • 7-day avg of new reported fatalities in Texas on Jan. 4 (latest data available) was about 200—more recorded death certificates to come which have increased the 7-day avg to near 200 since late Dec.

  • 7-day avgs of cases remain well above the highs in July (19.5K v 10K) while reported fatalities remain well below their highs then (250 vs. 200), meaning the case-fatality rate has so far been substantially lower now than the July highs

  • There remains a relatively high rate of hospital beds available across most of Texas with every TSA having at least 14.4% available—24.3% available statewide

  • 7-day avg of testing is up to 120K per day and the positivity rate remains elevated but trending down after peaking on 1/3 which was near the July high

  • While debatable, improvements in the case-fatality rate could be from better therapeutics, younger and healthier population infected, better utilization of hospital resources, and Governor Abbott’s more targeted policy approach

Texas Governor Abbott’s Metric Overview

  • Per Governor Abbott’s metric of COVID-19 hospitalizations as a share of total hospital capacity for seven consecutive days, TSAs below 15% can have most businesses expand to 75% capacity, keep state mask mandate, and bars (and others) open to 50% capacity with the approval of the county’s judge

  • 18 of 22 TSAs are reported on the list of further restrictions: A (Amarillo), B (Lubbock), D (Abilene), E (Dallas/Ft. Worth), F (Paris), G (Longview/Tyler), H (Lufkin), I (El Paso), L (Belton/Killeen), M (Waco), N (Bryan/College Station), O (Austin), P (San Antonio), Q (Houston), R (Galveston), S (Victoria), T (Laredo), and V (Rio Grande Valley

  • 95% of Texans are at 50% capacity + other restrictions while 5% of Texans are at 75% capacity + other restrictions, so Texas economy running at 50% capacity

  • This CV19-to-capacity metric statewide has been declining recently statewide to 20.4%, which is above July’s 17.0% average

Hospital Overview Statewide

  • COVID-19 hospitalizations up 0.8% (to 13,728 hospitalizations—lowest since 1/5) from 7 days ago & up 9.3% from 14 days ago, level is above July’s 9,700 average

  • Hospital beds available statewide is up to 24.3%, remains near the average of 23.7% in July and the average of 26% since May

  • Hospital capacity up 10.7% (to 67,206 beds) from 7 days ago and up 3.9% from 14 days ago, level is well above July’s 57,000 average

Twitter avatar for @VanceGinnVance Ginn @VanceGinn
‼️NEW‼️ 1/16 @TexasDSHS data for #Texas #COVID19 Recent Trends: ✳️Cases flat ✳️Hospitalizations flat ✳️CFR down since July highs ✳️24.3% of hospital beds available, near norms 95% of Texans in TSAs w/ increased biz capacity restrictions, so #TX economy running at 1/2 speed.
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January 18th 2021

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TEXAS ECONOMIC AND FISCAL SITUATION

Big news for the Texas Lege was the TX Comptroller’s Biennial Revenue Estimate that provides the Lege with how much fo taxpayer money they can appropriate:

Twitter avatar for @VanceGinnVance Ginn @VanceGinn
Great thread by @txcomptroller @Glenn_Hegar on today's #BREMonday, which is better than anticipated. Keys to me: 1) Likely balanced 2020-21 budget 2) Need spending restraint+no tax raises for 2022-23 total budget < Conservative Texas Budget @TPPF #txlege
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Texas Comptroller @txcomptroller

Here it is. Comptroller @Glenn_Hegar has just announced a $112.5 billion revenue projection for the 2022-23 biennium. https://t.co/LOEPDQXh1W The ending 2020-21 balance will be close to -$1 billion, a direct result of COVID-19’s effect on revenue collections. #BREMonday https://t.co/o2d2u523Pe

January 11th 2021

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Twitter avatar for @VanceGinnVance Ginn @VanceGinn
ICMY: My take @TPPF on @Glenn_Hegar’s #BREMonday:
texaspolicy.com/press/tppf-chi… Thoughts? @GregAbbott_TX @DanPatrick @DadePhelan @SenJaneNelson @VoteGiovanni @RepMaryGonzalez @DonnaHowardTX @RepMattSchaefer @TCCRI @txtaxpayers @TexasAFP @yctTPPF Chief Economist Offers Analysis of Biennial Review EstimateToday, Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar released the Biennial Revenue Estimate (BRE) which tells the Legislature the amount of taxpayer dollars available to fund various programs like public safety, education, and health care during the upcoming session which begins Jan. 12. “Given the COVID-19 pandemi…texaspolicy.com

January 12th 2021

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Check out what Texas business organizations are recommending this session even as Texas families are struggling…many biz orgs are detached from reality:

Twitter avatar for @VanceGinnVance Ginn @VanceGinn
With a tight budget in #Texas’ 2021 session & many families struggling from blanket shutdowns by govt, why are biz groups clamoring for more spending of taxpayer $ on corporate welfare instead of removing barriers imposed by govts? #txlege
Texas business groups: Legislature must offer ‘critical recovery measures’Business groups say they’ll be backing measures in the just-started Texas legislative session that are aimed at getting the economy back on its feet.amp.statesman.com

January 17th 2021

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Texas needs a conservative session to strengthen the Texas Model:

Twitter avatar for @VanceGinnVance Ginn @VanceGinn
Why are so many people moving from #California to #Texas? ‼️50% more expensive to live in CA than TX‼️ ➕no personal income tax ➕less govt spending/cap ➕$7.25 min wage ➕more reasonable reg ✅More inclusive economy in TX for families & employers. #txlege @TPPF @KevinKileyCA
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January 17th 2021

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U.S. ECONOMIC AND FISCAL SITUATION

Here’s my latest update on the U.S. economy and fiscal situation:

Twitter avatar for @VanceGinnVance Ginn @VanceGinn
My take on the U.S. economic & fiscal situation. “There is a need for sound policy by govts at every level to support a safe, expedited, and fiscally responsible rebound so Americans have more opportunities to thrive.” More:
texaspolicy.com/the-ginn-econo… @TPPF @yct @LetAmericaOpenAn insider’s insight on today’s economy.U.S. Economic Situation—January 2021 Americans’ lives and livelihoods took a hit in spring 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted their routines and how they earn a living as lockdowns by governments in response to the pandemic exacerbated the situation. Congress has since authorized about $4.5 t…texaspolicy.com

January 13th 2021

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President-elect Biden’s proposed $1.9T COVID relief bill is terrible. Here’s why:

Twitter avatar for @VanceGinnVance Ginn @VanceGinn
.@JoeBiden’s proposed $1.9T #COVID19 bill is an untargeted, monstrosity terrible for Americans. •$15 federal min wage •+$400 UI through Sept •$1,400 checks •$350B to state & locals Instead, must reopen & practice sound fiscal policy:
texaspolicy.com/the-ginn-econo… @LetAmericaOpen

CNBC @CNBC

Joe Biden just released his $1.9 trillion Covid relief plan – here's what's in it https://t.co/Vfk7KcyaG3

January 14th 2021

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The latest CARES 3.0 pushed the amount of your and your kids’ money to fight an initially pandemic-induced and then a government-extended recession to about $4.5 trillion.

Twitter avatar for @VanceGinnVance Ginn @VanceGinn
Good info! What are the assumptions for “net cost”? @BudgetHawks #COVID Money Tracker notes taxpayer $ to COVID relief exceed $4T. Maybe $5T+ with latest $900B+ bill? How much in total to state/local govts when consider education, transportation, & healthcare mostly go to them? https://t.co/gaGbHlfX9N
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Marc TWO MILLION SHOTS PER DAY Goldwein @MarcGoldwein

Net Covid relief will total over $3.5 trillion in the US, mostly from 4 pieces of legislation. https://t.co/fkzJp53Z6p

January 11th 2021

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There’s talk about raising the federal minimum wage. We shouldn’t and ultimately should eliminate the federal minimum wage given every state’s cost of living is different, and the minimum wage influences that cost of living:

Twitter avatar for @VanceGinnVance Ginn @VanceGinn
Good info! The actual minimum wage for those who lose their job from poor government policies is always $0.

Jeremy Horpedahl 🍞🔕 @jmhorp

The top 1% pay a very similar average tax rate as 1980 (chart from @ScottElliotG) Adjusted for inflation, the US has never had a $15 minimum wage, not even close. When you factor in state and local minimums, it's the highest it has ever been (chart from @ernietedeschi) 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️ https://t.co/1KPVVIlNux https://t.co/H3w8GvQRlC

January 17th 2021

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Check out these President Trump accomplishments noted by the Council of Economic Advisers and other information in the thread:

Twitter avatar for @VanceGinnVance Ginn @VanceGinn
In addition to the 2021 Econ Report of @POTUS by @WhiteHouseCEA, here are interesting points by @WhiteHouse on the economic and other statistics during the past four years. The tangible prosperity across income spectrum until March 2020 was incredible.
whitehouse.gov/trump-administ…

CEA @WhiteHouseCEA

Today, the Council of Economic Advisers is proud to announce the release of the 75th annual Economic Report of the President. https://t.co/ScEsPSM9i8

January 16th 2021

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Here’s an update from a recent chart based on the work by Mark Perry at AEI:

Twitter avatar for @VanceGinnVance Ginn @VanceGinn
More competitive domestic & international markets (blue lines are below CPI inflation since 2000) help people prosper with increased affordability, more options, & improved quality. Government-dominated markets (red) don’t. Free market capitalism is the best path to prosperity. https://t.co/0Apmwqwav8

Mark J. Perry @Mark_J_Perry

Updated "Chart of the Century" -- see any patterns? https://t.co/p7so2CP6l1

January 17th 2021

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We need less government welfare and more openings so people can work:

Twitter avatar for @VanceGinnVance Ginn @VanceGinn
Interesting point. But if more of the unemployed had a job, then many people could earn much more in the private sector (avg earnings ~$60K) than on govt programs. This is another cost of blanket restrictions on businesses by govts in response to #COVID19. #txlege https://t.co/0uIFkIOVyI
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Marc TWO MILLION SHOTS PER DAY Goldwein @MarcGoldwein

A typical unemployed workers will receive $35,000 over the course of a year (closer to $40k if they have a family) even if the Biden plan isn’t enacted. https://t.co/Y9dziRvEU3

January 17th 2021

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Closing Thoughts

Let me leave you with a quote from one of my favorite economists:

Twitter avatar for @VanceGinnVance Ginn @VanceGinn
Friedman is correct that the true burden of government is how much it spends of our tax dollars. This is why the Conservative Texas Budget and a spending limit are so important at every level of government. #txlege #PO2021 @TPPF
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January 15th 2021

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Thanks again for reading! If you haven’t signed up for my newsletter yet, please register here at no charge and share with others. Many blessings to you and yours.

Vance Ginn, Ph.D. | www.vanceginn.com | #LetPeopleProsper

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14. Keep Texas Texan: TPPF's Policy Orientation & More
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