9. Responsible Recovery Agenda: How to Overcome the COVID-19 Recession Fast

Opening America and practicing sound fiscal & regulatory policy is essential for a robust recovery.

Hello Friend!

Can you believe that Christmas and New Year’s are right around the corner? It’s hard for me to believe.

We put up our Christmas tree early this year to get into the spirit of celebrating Jesus’ birth and the salvation and grace provided to us through a huge price (Nothing is Free), and this spirit has helped drown some of the negativity going on in the media regarding COVID, the election, and more. I have a lot of what I consider uplifting points to share with you below.

It’s important to remember that we live in the most prosperous, most remarkable, and most opportunistic country in the history of man. Sure, there’s much we need to do to improve it because too many have fallen through the cracks, but we have much to be positive about even as the media and many politicians tell us otherwise.

So, get your optimistic cap on and maybe grab your favorite drink so you can imagine me telling you the following story. Enjoy!

OPEN TEXAS AND AMERICA

Summary: There are 8 TSA areas on the Governor’s list for further restrictions that includes 38% of Texans. COVID cases continue to rise higher than during the summer highs while fatalities, fortunately, remain well below the highs during the summer. Available hospital capacity remains elevated across most of the state with the Austin area having the lowest rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations as a share of total hospital capacity while keeping a relatively normal rate of available beds.  

Overview of COVID-19 in Texas

• After a brief decline in daily COVID cases, they’re back up recently with a 7-day average of about 12K, with today’s new cases of 16,864 (record high). Newly reported COVID fatalities were reported of 266 today with some going back several days based on which day was reported on death certificates, which will likely continue to increase, and the latest 7-day average available on 12/2 is 150 fatalities.

• Cases remain well above the highs over the summer (12K v 10K) while fatalities remain well below their highs then (250 vs. 150), meaning the case-fatality rate has so far remained substantially lower now than it was during the highs over the summer possibly from improvements in therapeutics, younger and healthier population infected, and better utilization of hospital resources.

• There remains a relatively high rate of available beds as a share of staffed inpatient beds across most of the state’s TSAs with every TSA having at least 9% available. Testing remains on average over 100K per day and the positivity rate remains somewhat elevated but well below the high rates over the summer.

• While debatable, improvements could be from a more targeted, timely, and temporary policy approach since moving to TSAs and sending resources where needed most by Governor Abbott.

Texas Governor Abbott Metric Overview:

• Per GA’s metric of CV19 hospitalizations/total hospital capacity for seven consecutive days, TSAs below 15% can have most businesses expand to 75% capacity, keep state mask mandate, and bars (and others) open to 50% capacity with the approval of the county’s judge.

• Eight TSAs are reported on the list of further restrictions: TSA A (Amarillo), TSA B (Lubbock), TSA D (Abilene), TSA E (Dallas/Ft. Worth), TSA H (Lufkin), I (El Paso), M (Waco), and TSA T (Laredo).

• So, 38% of Texans are at 50% capacity + other restrictions while 62% of Texans are at 75% capacity + other restrictions.

• This metric has been rising recently statewide to 14.5% but remains well below the 17.0% average for July.

Hospital Overview Statewide:

• COVID-19 hospitalizations up 6.4% (to 9,628) from 7 days ago and up 5.2% from 14 days ago, the level is below the 9,713 average for July

• Available beds as a share of staffed inpatient beds are down to 18.5%, below the 21.7% average for July

• Available beds down 4.0% (to 12,006) from 7 days  ago and down 5.4% from 14 days  ago, the level is above the 11,926 average for July

• Occupied beds up 2.5% (to 49,412) from 7 days ago and up 1.1% from 14 days ago, the level is above the 43,397 average for July

• Staffed inpatient beds up 2.6% (to 60,642) from 7 days ago and up 0.3% from 14 days ago, the level is above the 55,323 average for July

• Hospital capacity up 2.2% (to 66,199) from 7 days ago and up 0.1% from 14 days ago, the level is above the 56,871 average for July

Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

Here are the latest data regarding hospitalizations, cases, and fatalities related to #COVID19 in #Texas. #txlege More here: dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/Ad… @TexasDSHS @COVID19Tracking @GovAbbott @AlexBerenson

TEXAS ECONOMIC AND FISCAL SITUATION

Texas Jobs Report: Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the state-level jobs report for November 2020. The slower job creation reported in the U.S. jobs report for November earlier this month means jobs added across the states slowed as well. I recently released the jobs report figures for Texas in October and recommendations for what Texas should do to best help struggling families and so many employers who have lost their business or will lose it soon if things don’t open up.

Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

Here’s my take on the #Texas economy and how to recover fast from the recession. texaspolicy.com/texaseconomy/ @TPPF @patrickmgleason @Taxeconomist @MattMackowiak @Mark_J_Perry @TCCRI @TexasAFP @LIBREinitiative @kerpen @StephenMoore @alexwsalter @TheTexanNews @yct @HoustonCourant

Responsible Recovery Agenda: The following is a Twitter thread that outlines the 5-step approach that TPPF recommends to reduce government barriers so that there are more opportunities to recovery as fast as possible. This starts with opening Texas, but these fiscal factors going into the 2021 Legislative Session on Jan. 12 are essential and should be considered in other states as well. Please contact me if you’d like to discuss how to get this going where you live.

Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

1/n Thread of @TPPF's Responsible Recovery Agenda for #TxLege: *Pass a Conservative #Texas Budget *Reduce Govt Spending *Reject Higher Taxes *Reduce Reg Burdens *Tap Rainy Day Fund Responsibly texaspolicy.com/press/tppf-rel… @yct @TexasAFP @ALEC_states @StatePolicy @Comm4Prosperity

texaspolicy.comTPPF Releases Responsible Recovery AgendaToday, the Texas Public Policy Foundation released five papers that together form a responsible strategy for the state’s immediate and long-term economic growth. “These five approaches make for good economic policy anytime,” said TPPF Chief Economist Vance Ginn, Ph.D. “But they are especially import…

Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

2/n @TPPF's 2022-23 Conservative #Texas Budget sets a maximum threshold for state’s budget (need reductions) that will be passed during the 2021 #txlege so govt changes by less than taxpayers’ ability to pay for it. texaspolicy.com/2022-23-conser… @TexasAFP @LIBREinitiative @taxreformer

texaspolicy.com2022-23 Conservative Texas BudgetThe 2022-23 Conservative Texas Budget sets a maximum threshold for the state’s budget that will be passed during the 2021 Legislature so government grows by less than taxpayers’ ability to pay for it. Key points: Texas’s state government budget has often grown considerably faster than Texans’ abilit…

Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

3/n The #COVID19-induced recession in #Texas has strained the ability of many Texans to pay taxes to fund the state’s budget. #TxLege should prioritize budget reductions to cover a potential shortfall Here's how texaspolicy.com/prioritizing-t… @TPPF @CatoEdwards @veroderugy @DavidADitch

texaspolicy.comPrioritizing Texas Budget Reductions Amid Deficits Due to the COVID-19-Induced RecessionThe COVID-19-induced recession in Texas has strained the ability of many Texans to pay taxes to fund the state’s budget. The Legislature should consider prioritizing budget reductions to cover any potential budget shortfall. Key points: Texas usually ranks high in economic prosperity and must mainta…

Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

4/n The #COVID19 pandemic & govt response caused a sharp econ downturn & massive unemployment. Tax policy should carefully weigh how to efficiently raise revs with the least adverse effect on recovery in #Texas. texaspolicy.com/texas-tax-poli… @TPPF #txlege @adamnmichel @janellecamm

texaspolicy.comTexas Tax Policy Responses to the COVID-19 PandemicThe COVID-19 pandemic and government response caused a sharp economic downturn and massive unemployment. Going forward, tax policy should be carefully weighed on how to efficiently raise revenues with the least adverse effect on economic recovery in Texas. Key points: Taxation exists on three planes…

Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

5/n While #Texas has undertaken efforts to reduce reg burdens, it has among the highest overall # of regs in the country. Texas’s efforts to reduce unnecessary & harmful regulations should be expanded. texaspolicy.com/eliminating-un… @TPPF #txlege @JamesBroughel @deanstansel @TCCRI

texaspolicy.comEliminating Unnecessary and Harmful RegulationsWhile Texas has undertaken efforts to reduce regulatory burdens, it still has among the highest overall number of regulations in the country. Texas’s efforts to reduce unnecessary and harmful regulations should be expanded. Key points: Texas ranks high in overall economic freedom as a result of low …

Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

6/n #Texas “rainy day fund” is a valuable tool for covering unexpected shortfalls in tax receipts, like during the COVID-19 pandemic, but it should be used sparingly, budget reductions should be prioritized instead." texaspolicy.com/texass-rainy-d… @TPPF #txlege @Taxeconomist @mercatus

texaspolicy.comTexas’s Rainy Day Fund: How to Use It ResponsiblyTexas’s Economic Stabilization Fund (or “rainy day fund”) is a valuable tool for covering unexpected shortfalls in tax receipts, like those during the COVID-19 pandemic, but it should be used sparingly, and budget reductions should be prioritized instead. Key points: Texas ranks high in economic gro…

Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

7/n @TPPF's Real #Texas Budget provides an overview of govt spending from 2004-05 to 2018-19. It demonstrates the need for reforms to restrain the growth of govt spending and increase budget transparency. files.texaspolicy.com/uploads/2020/1… #txlege @ALEC_states @caseybmulligan @EconomicsOne

TV Interview on Why So Many Businesses Are Moving to Texas: No personal income taxes, lower taxes overall, sensible regulations, and a low cost of living help to make the Texas Model a desirable place if an entrepreneur wants to be profitable. This sort of inclusive institutional framework should be expanded here and used elsewhere to increase the amount of competition among states.

Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

Check out my interview with @PaulGreaney_ @news_ntd on how the #Texas Model continues to attract businesses from high cost #California and other places even as there’s reason to strengthen it. mb.ntd.com/vance-ginn-int… #txlege @TPPF

mb.ntd.comVance Ginn Interview: Texas Attracting Big BusinessVance Ginn is the Chief Economist at the Texas Public Policy Foundation. He explains what Texas is doing ...

U.S. ECONOMIC AND FISCAL SITUATION

U.S. Jobs Report: The U.S. jobs report for November 2020 was released earlier this month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While there continued to be positive net jobs created, the rate of growth has slowed as the COVID-19 cases have increased and many states have started to (wrongly) shutdown again. Here’s my overview of the latest jobs report and recommendations to get the economy back to the robust situation in February.

Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

Here’s my take on the US economy and recommendations on how to #letpeopleprosper. texaspolicy.com/the-ginn-econo… @TPPF @JohnCornyn @chiproytx @tedcruz @RussVought45 @EconomicsOne @caseybmulligan @RandPaul @GroverNorquist @GroverNorquist @yct @JohnFMauldin @brad_polumbo @HannahCox7

No Student Loan Forgiveness: This has been a hot topic recently. It should die quickly because it’s bad policy, helps upper-income people the most, and won’t “stimulate” the economy. Here’s my tweet that has had the most impressions recently:

Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

Nice charts showing how any student debt relief, which is a cost to taxpayers and a bad idea, would primarily provide a greater benefit to upper income individuals. Is that the goal? apple.news/AeTx0yZb1SoeOL… @brad_polumbo @HannahCox7

End Medicaid’s enhanced MOE from the CARES Act:

Vance Ginn @VanceGinn

.@SecAzar's public health emergency declaration should end as it enhances MOE which increases costs to taxpayers to fund more people on Medicaid and increases dependence by people not meant to be on it. More here: texaspolicy.com/ending-medicai… @DavidBalatHC @TheFGA @TPPF @brian_blase

texaspolicy.comEnding Medicaid’s Enhanced Maintenance-of-Effort ProvisionsIn March 2020, during the early part of the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. Congress passed the Families First Coronavirus Response Act and then the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act. The “maintenance of effort” (MOE) provisions authorized in the Families First Act and then enha…

Thanks again for reading! I hope this newsletter is marginally beneficial to you and will hopefully help us to find opportunities to let people prosper. If you haven’t registered yet, please register here at no charge. And follow me on Twitter: @vanceginn.

Have a blessed weekend and a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year in case I don’t see you or write another newsletter before then. I’m truly thankful for you and for your interest in reading this newsletter. My only request is that you share this newsletter with at least one of your friends and ask them to register. That would be a great gift!

Vance Ginn, Ph.D. | www.vanceginn.com | #LetPeopleProsper